Sport

Which Premier League creators will improve or decline this season?

We’ve used StatsBomb’s expected goals (xG) data to identify the players whose assist tally in the Premier League last season differed the most from what those chances would typically have yielded.

While their team-mates’ finishing skills could account for some of the discrepancies, expected and actual goal tallies tend to converge over time, suggesting that a player’s assist rate should fall into line with their ‘expected assists’ (xA) eventually.

The underachievers

Starting with the players who the numbers suggest should have registered more assists based on their creative output last season, a few of the Premier League’s biggest names look to have been short-changed.

To say that Mesut Ozil has divided opinion among Arsenal’s fan base would be an understatement, but his poor showing last season could have owed something to bad luck.

The underlying data suggests that five assists would have been a fairer return than the two he registered from his passes last term, and with the Gunners possessing two of the division’s best strikers it may be worth sticking with the mercurial German for at least one more campaign.

Further down the top 10 we can see that Lucas Digne and Felipe Anderson could have made even more powerful impressions at their respective clubs if the forwards their passes supplied had held their nerve a bit better in front of goal.

Over at Liverpool, Sadio Mane’s record of 22 goals and just one assist paints him as a more selfish player than the underlying statistics, which suggest that he could easily have set up three more goals for the Reds.

The overachievers

Flipping this analysis around, we can also reveal the players whose passes were perhaps over-rewarded for their creative efforts in 2018-19 and may struggle to rack up as many assists this time around.

Liverpool’s first choice full-backs had an incredible season, registering 23 assists between them, but even accounting for any superior finishing skill that the Reds’ front line possess compared with the average Premier League player, it would be a surprise to see them reach that tally again.

Trent Alexander-Arnold’s passes would have yielded around six assists in the average team compared to the 12 he recorded, so for him to hit double figures again this time around may be difficult.

Rumours abound that Christian Eriksen and Paul Pogba may be sold this summer and cashing in may make sense for Tottenham and Manchester United given that their fees will be inflated by creative performances that significantly oustripped what you’d normally expect from the passes they made.

Over at Manchester City, the return to fitness of Benjamin Mendy may not be the boost they were hoping for as the left-back’s five assists came from a far more modest expected tally and could be difficult to repeat even with City’s enviable striking options on the receiving end of his deliveries.

Takeaways

– Keeping hold of Mesut Ozil could help Arsenal return to the Champions League
– Lucas Digne and Felipe Anderson haven’t reached their creative potential yet
– Don’t expect Liverpool’s full-backs to reach the heights of last season