After two winning weekends in the Bundesliga, Ed Acteson returns with his midweek Bundesliga Betting Preview. This week he’s taking on the £30,000 Correct Score – Pick 4 pool. If you’d like to jump straight into his Syndicate, click here.
It was another drama-packed weekend in the Bundesliga and my suspicions that home advantage has all but gone grow ever stronger. In 18 matches since the restart, there have been just three home wins and two of those were Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Those 18 games have also yielded 59 goals, an average of 3.3 a game, and only two games have seen less than two, so it has been extremely high scoring. It would seem as though without fans the players are playing with the kind of freedom they would do in training, which has meant open matches and some spectacular goals.
My syndicates were a mixed bag in week two, after nailing the Pick 8 last weekend. We managed 5/8 in the Rollover Pick 8 but were let down by Hoffenheim, Freiburg and Schalke. In the £30,000 Correct Score – Pick 4, however, we got through the opening three legs and were rewarded with a huge 20x Cash Out offer. I opted to bank half of it but was let down in the final leg as Schalke capitulated against Augsburg. Still, profit is profit and I’m hoping to go one better this time.
Midweek Bundesliga Betting Preview
RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin
A meeting between the sides who put in the performances of the weekend. Hertha lit up the Olympiastadion Berlin on Friday night as they crushed their rivals, Union Berlin, 4-0. However, RB Leipzig went one better on Sunday, obliterating struggling Mainz 5-0 courtesy of a Timo Werner hat-trick.
At this point I am no longer considering playing at home to be a significant advantage without fans in attendance, however you’d still have to regard Leipzig as strong favourites for this game. 20 points and 8 places ahead of Hertha in the table, they are clearly the better side this season and in Timo Werner have one of the standout players in the league.
Hertha have lost by three or more goals five times so far this season and, although they’re on a four game unbeaten run, none of them came against a team higher than ninth in the table. Their last outing against a team in the top four ended in a 4-0 defeat to Bayern Munich, whilst they also lost 4-2 to Leipzig in the reverse fixture.
Eight of Leipzig’s 15 victories have come by three of more goals so I’m going to opt for a big win here, with Timo Werner hopefully leading the charge again.
Verdict: 3-0, 3-1, Other Home Win
Dusseldorf vs. Schalke
Not a win between these two since the season returned. Dusseldorf have drawn twice so far but really need wins if they’re to escape relegation. Schalke were dismantled 4-0 by Borussia Dortmund last weekend, understandable, but were then utterly hapless in losing 3-0 to Augsburg.
Schalke’s European ambitions will fade to nothing quickly if they don’t arrest a dismal run of form that has seen them pick up the second fewest points in the league over the last ten games with one win and four draws. Dusseldorf, rooted in the relegation places, represent an opportunity to do that but I’m not fully convinced they will.
Dusseldorf have actually drawn four consecutive matches and are unbeaten in five. The pair have won 14 games between them and 12 have been by two goals or less. I’m expecting it to be tight so will perm the draws and narrow wins.
Verdict: 1-1, Other Draw, 2-1, 1-2
Hoffenheim vs. FC Koln
Another tight game as ninth host tenth. FC Koln have had two remarkable 2-2 draws since returning. They let a two goal lead slip in the opening week to claim a stalemate before doing the exact opposite last weekend, salvaging a point with two injury time goals.
Hoffenheim were tonked 3-0 by Hertha in their first game back before struggling to a draw with bottom-of-the-table Paderborn at the weekend. They’ve failed to win in their last six, losing three of them, and I have real concerns over their chances here.
By contrast, Koln have won three and drawn two in the same period and I’m backing them to come out on top against a Hoffenheim side lacking in confidence. It’s been eight games since Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet and they’ve shipped 19 goals in that run, although the figures are skewed somewhat by a 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Bayern.
Meanwhile Koln have been scoring freely, netting 20 goals in their previous eight. I think that both sides will score but Koln will eventually cruise to a 2 or 3 goals victory so will be backing those results.
Verdict: 1-3, 2-3, Other Away Win
Stuttgart vs. Hamburg
Stuttgart won the Bundesliga as recently as 2007 but now find themselves plying their trade in the German second tier after a dramatic fall from grace. They take on another Bundesliga mainstay, Hamburg, and it’s a real promotion grudge match with third hosting second in the table.
A win for Stuttgart would put them second and in the automatic promotion places whereas a Hamburg victory would put daylight between the pair and give them a four point cushion. Unfortunately, neither side have been in sparkling form as of late.
Stuttgart have taken seven points from their last six games and Hamburg have taken just six. Since the season return Stuttgart have lost both fixtures and Hamburg have drawn twice. However, Stuttgart’s losses to the sides seventh and 17th in table have set alarm bells ringing for me and I’m going to oppose them here.
My betting strategy in this pool is to try and get through the first three legs and hopefully secure some funds with a big Cash Out offer. That only leaves me one selection to play with here. Stuttgart have lost six of their eight defeats by a single goal but both teams have seen both teams score in around 60% of their games.
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