Racing
Hereford betting tips: Red Risk represents great value
Our racing man Steven Dowler turns his attention to Hereford on Friday and fancies his chances of tackling the £3,000 Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6. He reckons that Red Risk has a fantastic chance in the Novices’ Chase. Last time Steven put up a Syndicate it didn’t fill but ended up winning on two seperate lines. He’s put another one up today so help him out and join his Syndicate.
12.40 – Handicap Hurdle
David Rees has his stable going well of late and it’s hard not to see FLYING GARRY involved in the finish. He has showed significant improvement with each run especially last time out where he finished a solid second on heavy ground in a better contest. That race was pretty strong in all fairness and today’s longer trip should hold no fears dropping down in grade, so he must be high on the short list.
BUTLER’S BRIEF is another leading contender here based on the fact he has run three promising races to date in better company including over C&D last time out where he travelled really well before weakening late on in the race. His opening mark looks fair and jockey Bryan Carver is riding out of his skin this past couple of weeks. The yard are also having a good time of things so it is very difficult to dismiss this five-year-old who has the potential to be ahead of this mark.
I’m also going to give a mention to ENRY IGGINS who shaped well over C&D last time when just in front of Butler’s Brief. It is clear he needs to take another step forward on handicap debut today but there is a good chance he can do so with the promising claimer Rex Dingle in the saddle again and with course form a key factor at this track, that’s enough to suggest he can go well today.
Selections: FLYING GARRY, BUTLER’S BRIEF, ENRY IGGINS
13.10 – Handicap Hurdle
The Ralph and Carver combination team up again this afternoon with strong favourite SEYMOUR FOX, who ran a brilliant race to finish second under a big weight on handicap debut last time out. Today’s race looks a bit easier and although he comes up against a host of handicap debutants, I think Seymour Fox could go one better here as that latest piece of form is the strongest on offer.
Venetia Williams is no stronger to success at her local track and LITTLE GINGE has a chance of going well on handicap debut. He has been sent off big odds on his two visits to the course but he ran above expectations both times and today’s event will see him drop down in class on handicap debut. I do think it would be disappointing if he can’t progress and run well off this sort of mark at this level.
Selections: SEYMOUR FOX, LITTLE GINGE
13.40 – Maiden Hurdle
I like the look of this maiden hurdle and Dr Richard Newland has a good chance of landing the spoils with ARTISTIC LANGUAGE, who was decent on the flat placing three times including on heavy ground. He made a good start to his hurdles career with a promising second at Wetherby on soft ground before finishing fifth at Catterick last time when sent off favourite. He failed to settle there but showed up for a long way on the process and today’s blinkers will surely help him in that department which gives him a good chance of making it third time lucky under Sam Twiston-Davies.
Tom George and Johnny Burke are a team in hot form at present and SAY THE WORD has a brilliant chance for them here. He was second in all three flat starts for Simon Crisford and he made a promising hurdles debut when fourth of ten when needing the run for his new yard and although he finished last at Cheltenham recently, he didn’t run that badly and today’s level is much more realistic dropping down a couple of grades that can see him go well.
Selections: ARTISTIC LANGUAGE, SAY THE WORD
14.15 – Handicap Hurdle
One of the most competitive races on today’s card is this handicap hurdle and despite Evan Williams and Adam Wedge not being in the best of form recently, I can see HOLLY JAMES going well. He has won two of his four starts, his sole bumper and then beating a below par Prudhomme who is held in high regard. This six-year-old was was in second place and gradually getting to the winner last time out under a penalty over 3 miles at Chepstow when falling two out. The winner is rated 130+ so that gives Holly James massive claims today if over that fall as he is bred to appreciate today’s extra yardage on ground to suit.
Another trainer in fine form is Henry Oliver and he has WAIHEKE here, who ran well on seasonal debut two starts ago before finishing a fast second at Chepstow last time out off this mark. This 7yo mare usually gets outpaced before seeing her races out strongly so today’s longer trip promises to suit as she could outstay this field if closer to the pace at a crucial stage.
Selections: HOLLY JAMES, WAIHEKE
14.45 – Novices’ Chase
We now move on to an appealing novice chase, both Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden make a rare visit to this course with RED RISK, who is there only runner and ride on today’s card. Red Risk was last seen beating a good field in Auteuil by four lengths and he has proven form on ground soft or worse, which is why connections bring him here today. A promising five-year-old, Red Risk has been given an official rating of 139, which means this horse is predicted to have the class of mixing it in graded company.
It is also worth nothing this son of No Risk At All has produced two grade one winners recently (Epatante) and also (Esprit Du Large) and there’s no reason why Red Risk can’t rank higher for Paul Nicholls. He will definitely get further in time but he has been found a good opportunity to making a winning start in Britain here with a clear round before going onto better things.
As we seen at Cheltenham when Champ fell two fences from the finish, there is no certainty in racing and it might be worth chancing DAME DU SOIR in our place pool just incase the favourite doesn’t do himself justice even though he should outclass this field. This mare gets weight all around at the bottom of the weights and having shown a good level of form over hurdles, she ran a solid race on chase debut when not beaten far behind the 130+ rated Midnight Tune. Today’s competition looks a bit more competitive but she gets weight all around and comes here with chasing experience under her belt which should see her run another big race over fences.
Selections: RED RISK, DAME DU SOIR
15.20 – Handicap Chase
We conclude the day with a tricky handicap chase but four stand out for me, one of those being top weight HEPBURN. She’s still a maiden over fences but she has run solid races in defeat never finishing worse than fourth on all starts over fences and has reached the frame four times, three of those off higher marks. I liked how she stayed on well over a trip too short on her return to action last time over hurdles and the return to fences will only benefit her. Hepburn handles soft to worse ground fine and trainer Ali Stronge is underrated as most of his horses run better than there odds indicate. James Bowen remains on board the 7-year-old mare with her fitness assured and makes plenty of appeal.
You don’t often see the champion jockey Richard Johnson travel to one meeting for one ride but that’s the case here as he rides the lightly raced ECTOR for Warren Greatrex. He was a good second last time out off this mark in a higher graded race following wind surgery where things didn’t go smoothly for him and today’s contest is much easier. I also think the step up in trip will bring about further improvement and Ector is sure to be bang there at the finish being one of the least exposed in the contest.
I also wouldn’t dismiss Ali Stronge’s second string HERESMYNUMBER, who is very well treated these days. He is a stronger stayer who acts well on soft ground and connections have booked Adam Wedge to ride. I can see this 10-year-old taking a step forward with that latest run under his belt and it would be no surprise at all to see him run a big race as we know he stays further than this trip.
Misty Mai is arguably better than this level because she has done most of her racing in higher grade company off higher marks and is also a C&D winner off an 18LB higher mark. She has run well to reach the frame on all three starts this season off 2LB higher marks including over C&D last time in class 4 company. Today’s event will see her 2 pound lower in a much easier race and Sean Bowen is an eye-catching booking so there is every reason to believe this mare will go close to winning this for her in-form yard.
Selections: HEPBURN, ECTOR, HERESMYNUMBER, MISTY MAI
