Racing
Ascot betting tips: Paisley Park looks the bet of the day
Another fine afternoon of racing at Ascot lies ahead and Cheltmental returns with his expertise in a bid to take down the Boosted £10,000 Place 6. His bet of the day is Paisley Park who will surely lap up the conditions. Agree with his selections? Then join his Syndicate.
12:40 – NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE – 2M 7 ½ F
It’s going to be a serious test of stamina for these Novices’ on this ground over this trip so I’m keen to look for those who have winning form on slower going.
MARCH IS ON, won a handicap in October over 3m on sft ground but looked held after when 4th of 12 off a 1lb higher mark. EASYRUN DE VASSY would be hard to assess in terms of ground but the gut feel is he won’t like it although he ran well the last day off a 5lb lower mark.
PEMBERLEY won last time out on soft but that came over a shorter trip so I’d have reservations about him too. MAASAI WARRIOR is interesting enough after gaining a mark from three runs at 2m and running against good horses in those runs too.
Richard Johnson is booked to ride. DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT is another interesting runner now he’s down 4lbs from his opening mark and trying this trip for the first time also. He was sent off just 13/8 over 2m in heavy ground but disappointed although if the trip was really the issue he might enjoy this sort of test.
Selections – MARCH IS ON, MAASAI WARRIOR, DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT
13:15 – GRADUATION CHASE – 2M 5F
DOUBLE SHUFFLE is still eligible for this Graduation Chase as he’s just the two wins over fences. The 9yo is stop rated in here and gives weight to just two rivals, PALOMA BLUE & ON THE BLIND SIDE.
The former had a number of entries but this does look to be a nice opportunity to get just his second win over fences. He ran really well in a first time Tongue Tie the last day in heavy ground and at this early stage (before seeing prices) might be the one I’d want to side with.
ONE THE BLIND SIDE has been receiving positive comments from the yard but he’s not shown enough in the last two starts to really fill you with any confidence and the drop back in trip isn’t assured to suit although the testing ground might balance that out. RIDERS ONTHE STORM was due to run last weekend for only a mix up to put paid to that.
He’s the youngest runner in the field but has plenty of chasing experience to do himself justice in here plus he has won on heavy in Ireland. ADRIEN DU POINT completes the field but hasn’t looked right for some time now although he was sent off favourite for this race in 2017 but just 1 win from 9 starts since then.
Selections – PALOMA BLUE, RIDERS ONTHE STORM
13:50 – HANDICAP CHASE – 2M 3F
This looks a really good handicap to get stuck into so I’m hoping that class comes and recent form comes to the fore.
KOBROUK is an 8yo but he’s not had much racing since joining Seven Barrows a couple of years back. He ran well enough last month over hurdles on good ground which looked like a warm up and given all his form in France comes in a bog he’ll love this ground.
GARDE LE VICTOIRE is a 10yo so his best days are behind him, but he runs well in this ground and as now off a nice mark. He’s not been seen for over a year which is a worry. FIRST FLOW would look one of the best chances in here after a demolition job latest and his form behind ANGELS BREATH reads very well now.
ESPOIR DE GUYE has to be mentioned for Venetia’s form alone (6 of last 8 have won) but he comes here off the back of a win and he’s up 9lbs as a result although he’s only 5.
ON THE SLOPES can have a case made for him when you read into his form. He was second behind the likes of EDEN DU HOUX & GREANETEEN and although his mark looks about fair I still think he can win from it and I’m excited about him on this ground.
GOLDEN WHISKEY possible made hard work the last day when he was odds on favourite but he did win, it was on heavy ground and his 6lb rise looks manageable.
Selections – KOBROUK, FIRST FLOW, ESPOIR DE GUYE, ON THE SLOPES
14:25 – LONG WALK HURDLE – 3M
This is all about PAISLEY PARK and while he’s untested on ground this slow I have no reason to believe it will cost him the race.
In fact, he’s hinted before that the further the better and the more testing the better so I can’t see anything other than a win from Paisley Park here.
Selection – PAISLEY PARK
15:00 – HANDICAP CHASE – 3M
Another cracking handicap and this one will take some solving but it’s easy to start off with KILDISART who was class at Aintree over this trip and Ben Pauling was 2 from 2 on Friday so the yard are starting to produce. He beat MISTER MALARKY in that Aintree race but even on these revised terms you’d expect Ben Pauling’s charge to come out on top with MALARKY having underwhelmed this season.
GIVE ME A COPPER was back to something like the horse we think he could be at Wincanton and his best form had come on slow ground before. Harry Cobden has improved on him with each start as that duo seem to be building a bond and I think he will go well in here despite the 6lb rise. YALLTARI goes for Venetia so needs the mention but he also ran well when last seen here and meets MISTER MALARKY on 3lb better terms.
CREIVEHILL has produced back to back wins but is up 17lbs as a result so I think he now looks held. JERRYSBACK is potentially a much better horse than his current mark but he’s hard to predict and his last two runs have been woeful. Market confidence might be a good indicator if this might be the day.
Selections – KILDISART, GIVEMEACOPPER, YALLTARI
15:35 – HANDICAP HURDLE – 1M 7 ½ F
This final leg looks as tough as it gets so I’d want some cover but I’m happy to stick three in here.
HARAMBE was impressive in the Greatwood and he’s a horse I really like but he just misses the cut now he’s been raised. ZANZA is another who was on the shortlist but COUNTISTER who also ran in that Greatwood does make the slip. She’s been dropped 4lbs, she will have come on for the run and she’ll enjoy the slow ground.
QUOI DE NEUF is another selection from that Greatwood as I think he’ll enjoy this track a bit more. I would be slightly worried about the amount of rain for him but I’d hope he’s got another bold show in him.
The one I’m really drawn to here is TAMAROC DU MATHAN who was second behind MASTER DEBONAIR round here last month. He gave that runner 5lbs then and was beaten 7l so in literal form he looks well treated.
Add into that he will probably prefer this more testing ground, and will have come on a bundle from that pipe opener and I think he should be favourite.
Selections – COUNTISTER, QUOI DU NEUF, TAMAROC DU MATHAN
