Ayr betting tips
13.20 – Nursery – 1m
LONGLAI produced a career-best performance at Salisbury last time when beating the 90-rated Golden Flame again by a whisker. He makes his handicap debut today and although connections don’t often do well at this venue, he still must be feared.
RECOVERY RUN hasn’t done a lot wrong, finishing no worse than second in all career races and could be tough to catch here providing he gets a soft enough lead under the champion Oisin Murphy.
Selections: LONGLAI, RECOVERY RUN
13.55 – Listed Stakes – 1m2f
A fascinating renewal of this listed event which can go the way of ADDEYBB, who is a high-class performer and is purely consistent on a regular basis. He is a dual Group One winner taking a significant drop down in class here following an excellent second at Royal Ascot behind Lord North. If he runs to anywhere near his mark, his class should prove decisive despite giving weight to all rivals.
If William Haggas’s star performer somehow gets turned over here, perhaps FOX CHAIRMAN will be the one to capitalise with the receipt in weight from the favourite. He hasn’t won this year, but he’s a very smart and consistent sort, who will have the assistance of Oisin Murphy and that makes him interesting.
Selections: ADDEYBB, FOX CHAIRMAN
14.30 – Silver Cup – 6f
As expected, a typically high-class renewal of Silver Cup which is the consolation race to the main event later on the card.
MUSCIKA needs a lot of luck in-running, hence why his win strike-rate is quite poor. However, there’s no doubting his ability having run well on many separate occasions off tougher marks in the past. He was keeping on well to finish eighth in this last year off a mark of 92 and is 1lb lower here. I strongly suspect a high draw is where you want to be, and with a good-looking slot in stall 24, he’s interesting.
LOUIE DE PALMA is another one I like at a big price. Clive Cox does well with the limited runners he sends to the track and this lightly raced eight-year-old was an excellent sixth on this card twelve months ago in the main event (Ayr Gold Cup). That was off a mark of 95 and he did well to finish where he did considering it was on ground quicker than ideal for him. Since then, he’s run some credible races in defeat off the same mark and will get much more favourable conditions this weekend from a 4lb lower mark than last year.
While ADMIRALITY doesn’t win that often, he’s held his form well at a high standard and was sixth in this twelve months ago carrying 9-10 and off a mark of 94. Now, he’s carrying 9-6 off a 4lb lower mark and has an excellent chance of reversing last year’s form with the winner Golden Apollo and third horse Get Knotted. His latest three second placed efforts have indicated his turn might be near and not only that, but he arrives into this years renewal in even better form.
Michael Dods has a good record in this race and his runner GET KNOTTED shouldn’t be ignored having finished third in this race twelve months ago. That was off 88, so the welcome addition of being 6lb lower on the back of some respectable efforts effectively makes him a strong contender. It seems logic to presume connections have targeted him at this race all season and stall 20 couldn’t have been any kinder, truth be told. He’s a former C&D winner who has valuable track experience with ideal conditions, therefore, he could capitalise on his sliding mark.
Selections: MUSCIKA, LOUIE DE PALMA, GET KNOTTED, ADMIRALITY
15.05 – Fillies’ Stakes – 6f
A big field assembled for this Group Three prize. On paper, UMM KULTHUM is the standout pick based on her third in the Lowther Stakes at York. That was just her second career race, and she takes a drop down in grade which will evidently make her hard to beat.
Of the rest, Ben Curtis has opted to ride SHE’S SO NICE, who was just behind Umm Kulthum at York when last seen. She should be much more suited to this track given the way she hits the ground hard and at the prices, she’s the one I’m most interested in for place purposes.
Selections: UMM KULTHUM, SHE’S SO NICE
15.40 – Ayr Gold Cup – 6f
The main attraction on the card is the Ayr Gold Cup which looks an absolute minefield on paper.
ARECIBO rarely runs a bad race and is drawn perfectly in stall 25 and is a past course winner. He’s 4lb lower than when third in this last year and it seems significant that connections reach for first-time cheekpieces here with him which could be the difference from him placing to finally getting his head in front. Andrea Atzeni is an interesting jockey booking, so there’s a lot to like about David O’Meara’s consistent but frustrating individual.
Ray Dawson is riding out of his mind of late and his only ride on Saturday’s card is likely to attract plenty of attention. He rides Roger Varian’s SPANISH CITY, who rarely runs a bad race and remains on the exact same mark as when third at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham Stakes. He likes to be held-up before coming with a late surge and those tactics will be tough to pull off here but he has the most in-form rider on his back and if the gaps appear when needed, this seven-year-old could go close.
Kevin Ryan has dominated this race for many years and his main hope looks to be BIELSA, who has a nice high draw and should strip fitter for his run at Haydock last time. That was his first run after a wind operation, and he’s won four of his eight starts so far. Tom Eaves stays loyal in the saddle and the ground will be perfect for this lightly-raced five-year-old so there will be no excuses for him today if he disappoints.
A bit of ease in the ground won’t hinder the chances of ANOTHER BATT, who remains nicely treated based on past exploits. He hasn’t had much racing over six-furlongs but his form figures over the trip reads 2, 1, 3 and 1. The five-year-old is a past C&D winner who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by a low drawn number.
Selections: ARECIBO, SPANISH CITY, BIELSA, ANOTHER BATT
16.15 – Handicap – 1m
SHELIR deservedly got off the mark for David O’Meara when comfortably winning by over two-lengths at Thirsk just over a couple of weeks ago. He was well suited by the way the race developed but that’s likely to be a similar story here with a couple of confirmed front-runners. Now he’s finally got his head in front, there’s a good chance he can follow up here, and he’s my only choice on the final leg of today’s Ayr betting tips.
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