Racing
2019 Melbourne Cup Preview
The Melbourne Cup, run over 3200m at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November, is for the average Australian and remains Australia’s greatest race.
It’s the only race that actually stops the entire nation for the three and a bit minutes that it takes to run and became part of Australian folklore long ago.
You can forget the much-hyped ‘The Everest’ at Randwick in Sydney, with its obscene, over-the-top prize money. It’s been run and won just twice by the same horse, Redzel, which is a very good but not an all time great sprinter. On the second occasion it was run on a track that could only be described as a quagmire, which disadvantaged most other runners.
For the racing purist, the Cox Plate is the weight for age championship of the southern hemisphere and a large crowd jams into the coliseum that is the tight, undulating Moonee Valley racecourse to watch it. However, despite the quality of horses going around, nothing matches the excitement the Melbourne Cup generates around the country, where virtually the entire population suddenly become racing experts.
In the couple of days leading up to the great race, people who normally never have a bet pore over the form, the colours, names, weights and jockeys in an attempt be able to claim to family, friends and colleagues that they had their dollars on the Melbourne Cup winner. It’s a nationwide phenomenon and betting turnover goes through the roof each year on the Cup, as around 100,000 people jam into Flemington racecourse.
The only two events on the Australian sporting calendar that even come close to matching that sort of crowd are the AFL Grand Final, held every year in late September at the MCG, and the opening day of an Ashes Boxing Day test at the same place.
The Cup, being a handicap, is not an easy race to win. Trainers invariably have to time their charge’s rise through the ranks to not only peak on the day but to both get enough weight to ensure that they are high enough in the ballot order so they can gain a start in the 24 horse field.
It has always taken a good stayer to win the Cup, with a unique combination of stamina and speed required at the end of a gruelling two mile trip. However, that task became far more difficult in 1993 when the Irish wizard Dermott Weld forever turned the Cup on it head when he produced the relatively unknown, but well credentialled, jumper and flat performer Vintage Crop.
With the benefit of hindsight, Vintage Crop was thrown in at the weights with 55.5kgs and, when produced by Michael Kinane for his winning run at the 400m, it was evident soon after that the Cup was about to change forever as commentator Greg Miles called; “Vintage Crop coming with a run now” just prior to the 300m.
Relishing the conditions, the tough seven-year-old gelding joined in quickly at the 300m and, despite still being a number of lengths off the leader Te Akau Nick, he powered clear over the final 100m to win by a widening three lengths before pulling up and looking like could go around again.
It would take a while for European trainers to get the winning formula correct again and to bring the right type of horse for the Cup, until Weld hit the bullseye again when he ventured out to Australia with the lightly raced Media Puzzle to win an emotional 2002 Melbourne Cup after Jason Oliver, the brother of the winning jockey Damien, died as a result of a fall in a trial only a week earlier.
The European raiders kept coming but it was the Japanese who struck next in 2006, with the Katsuhiko Summi trained pair Delta Blues and Pop Rock fighting out the finish, with Delta Blues eventually prevailing. It wasn’t until 2010, though, when the French-trained Americain steamed home on a rain-sodden track that the absolute domination of the Melbourne Cup by either overseas trained gallopers or former European stayers trained by local trainers, began in earnest.
During this period, the luckless Ed Dunlop-trained Red Cadeaux also finished runner up on no less than three occasions. This spell of domination was only interrupted by the freak events of the 2015 Cup when Michelle Payne, riding Prince Of Penzance, became the first female jockey to win the Cup. She was the beneficiary of severe interference at the top of the straight which resulted in a number of runners losing their winning chance.
Eight of the last nine Cup winners have been European or locally trained former European stayers as the evolution of the Cup has continued. The formula for the right type of horse to bring appears to have evolved into two distinct categories in that time.
Firstly there is the lightly raced up and coming European three-year-olds which have snuck into the Cup carrying a weight less than they would if they were running in an European equivalent on the same day. When they race here in the Cup they’re classified as 4yo’s. Both the 2017 winner Rekindling (51.5kg) and the 2018 winner Cross Counter (51kg) fit that category
Additionally, there are those that are of a relatively lightly raced emerging stakes class stayer and on a rapid upwards spiral. Six of the last eight Cup winners are of that mould, with the Andreas Wohler trained 2014 Melbourne Cup winner being a classic example of this, having come through what has become a significant Melbourne Cup lead up pattern by winning the Group 2 Prix Kergolay over 3000m at Deauville in France. Protectionist was having just his eighth start in the 2014 Prix Kergolay and won the Cup just two starts later at his 10th career appearance.
Your truly dour stayer can run a place and they have done so in the past, Persian Punch being a good example, but to win a Cup you need a real turn of foot, not a wind up 4000m stayer that will keep going all day as the tempo of the race gradually builds.
The facts support this analogy as the really dour stayer hasn’t won a Melbourne Cup in the past two decades, so how does this all of this relate to the current crop of European raiders? It provides a template to identify what is likely to be the right type of horse that has a legitimate chance of winning the Cup. The proviso being that they have to have travelled well, settled in and adapted properly to a foreign environment and, as a result, are in the necessary mental and physical condition to perform near their capability.
The Contenders
Constantinople
Previously trained by Aidan O’Brien but with David Hayes in Australia, this lightly raced colt turned in a career best performance when chasing home the brilliant Logician in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur over 2385m at York on Aug 21.
This is the same race that Cross Counter came through last year when finishing a close second to Old Persian. So there are some distinct parallels between the two but, up until that run, he had been a fraction disappointing. He was ridden quietly at York and went far straighter than in previous runs, the first two came right away from the rest and Logician has since brilliantly won the St Leger at Doncaster.
Importantly he has the ability to quicken nicely, a prerequisite for a serious Melbourne Cup hope and seems to handle most track conditions but I get the feeling he may benefit from the addition of blinkers or winkers which may occur with his new stable often tinkering with their charge’s gear.
The stable change prior to the Cup is not ideal as, when these European horses are sold and flown out to Australia to join a new stable, they generally benefit from a break and it often takes a while for the horse to adapt to an entirely different type of training regime.
He is safely in the Cup field, currently sitting 11th in the order of entry. Although he has a few things against him, with no weight on his back, he has to be respected, though I do have a slight query on him at the 3200m trip of the Cup.
Django Freeman
Lightly raced German three-year-old colt who has had six starts, including three wins and three seconds, having been in Australia for some time now under the care of Melbourne Cup winning trainer Robert Hickmott who prepared two Melbourne Cup winners for prominent owner Lloyd Williams.
The son of Campanologist is reportedly showing good speed in his recent jumpouts and appears to have settled in well. He is safely ensconced in the Cup field, currently sitting tenth in the order of entry, although hasn’t raced since finishing a gallant second in the Group 1 German Derby over 2400m at Hamburg on July 4th of this year after getting a nice run in transit midfield throughout when given every chance behind the talented Laccario.
Two starts prior he impressively won the Group 3 Bavarian Cup over 2000m at Munich on May 1st and fits the lightly raced three-year-old Cup profile drops 5.5kg from his last run to 52.5kg in the Cup and is in a yard that knows what it takes to win the Cup.
Ispolini
Emerging Godolphin-owned Dubawi four-year-old from the astute Charlie Appleby stable. Quickened up nicely to hit the front at the 350m but was left in front a fair way out and just clung on to win the Group 3 German St Leger over 2800m at Dortmund on September 15th, after sitting midfield on the fence throughout, before being angled wider at the top of the long Dortmund straight.
Gave the resuming Melbourne winner Cross Counter a real race for much of the straight in the Group 2 Dubai Cup over 3219m at Meydan on March 30 when he gained a saloon rails run through the field and got through on the inside of the leaders on the corner before he and the winner came right away from the rest of the field in the straight before eventually going down by 1.3 lengths to Cross Counter.
Currently sitting 20th in the order of entry for the Cup but likely to move up a place or two after his latest win and is another who profiles nicely dropping from 60kg in the German St Leger to 55kg in the Cup.
Cross Counter
Now a fully mature four-year-old, the winner of last year’s Cup is going well again but rises 6.5 kg from 51kg in last year’s Cup to 57.5kg.
Kicked off his preparation with a strong win carrying 55kg in the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3219m at Meydan on March 30. He and his stablemate Ispolini cleared out from the rest of the field over the final 400m before Cross Counter proved too strong after having enjoyed a nice run parked just off the speed throughout.
Freshened before reappearing in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m at the Royal Ascot meeting on June 20 when carrying 57.5kg he ran home strongly from near the rear in a moderately run affair to finish a close up 4th behind Stradivarius beaten 1.9 lengths.
Had every chance at his next start at Goodwood on July 30 in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup over 3219m when he lumped 61kg into 3rd beaten 2.2 lengths behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee.
Funny run at his next start in the Group 1 2800m Irish St Leger at The Curragh on September 15 when he again carried 61kg and wasn’t suited by the race developing into a big sprint home when 4th beaten 4l again coming from midfield after being inexplicably trapped 3w without cover for most of the final 1800m after enjoying a nice run one off the fence early but was left out there when after latching onto the back of the winner Search For A Song that horse kept going and rolled to the top to take up the running.
Cross Counter was going nowhere halfway down the straight under riding but he started to work home again when Kew Gardens moved up strongly on his outside.
Race clearly wasn’t run to suit on that occasion and prior to that you would have said he’s had a lovely build up towards the Cup.
Drops 3.5kg from that run in the Cup and while historical Cup records suggest that he has the task ahead the evolution of the Cup into a quality handicap indicates that higher weighted horses have a far greater chance of success than in the past. The handicapper has also corrected the previous weight anomaly that the European 3yo’s were being advantaged by over the last two years.
Taking into account the overall strength of his form since winning the Cup he doesn’t appear to be that harshly treated.
Southern France
Turned in his best run this preparation when a solid third just beating home Cross Counter in the Group 1 Irish St Leger over 2800m at the Curragh on September 15. Was ridden forward aggressively to settle third early but was gradually shuffled back to midfield before gaining a nice run through them from the 400m to briefly loom into it nearer the inner but then just battled into third btn 3.8 lengths from the winner Search For A Song.
His last three runs have easily been his best performances this preparation and appears to be gradually improving.
Two starts back he scored a comfortable win after sitting third on the fence throughout in the Irish St Leger Trial when sweated up noticeably but still got the job done well going on to score by two lengths carry 61kg but in winning he defeated a considerably weaker line up than what he’ll likely encounter in the Melbourne Cup.
Will leave the Aidan O’Brien yard and join the prominent Australian stable of trainer Ciaron Maher and David Eustace for the remainder of his Cup preparation upon his arrival in Australia which again potentially adversely his chances.
While safely in the Cup with 55.5kg and currently sitting 8th in the order of entry for mine he appears very harshly weighted compared to Cross Counter despite narrowly beating that galloper home in the Irish St Leger and will meet him 2kg better off.
Has to be considered a doubt at the two miles as well, three starts back in the Goodwood Cup over 3219m he finished a well beaten 4th nine lengths from the winner Stradivarius and 6.8 lengths astern of Cross Counter while carrying 61.5kg just half a kg more than the Godolphin galloper.
Mirage Dancer
Kicked off his latest campaign when ridden quietly at the rear throughout and never went around a horse to score a comfortable win against a moderate four horse line up in a Listed 2412m event at Goodwood on May 25.
Stepped up considerably in class at his next start when a game 3rd carrying 57.5kg in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2406m at Royal Ascot on June 22 finishing 1.5 lengths from the inform Defoe and convincingly beating home Southern France. Travelled kindly outside the leader throughout and briefly loomed as a winning chance before being swamped over the final 200m by the winner and second placegetter.
At his next start he sat 4th the fence throughout, again travelled well and tried hard under his 60kg but couldn’t match Newmarket specialist Communiqué who made it four wins from as many starts at the track when he defeated a gallant Mirage Dancer by 1.8 lengths in a 2414m Group 2 event there on July 11.
At his last start was sent out a $1.70 favourite in a Group 3 over 2412m at Goodwood on August 2. Carried 57.5kg on that occasion and again enjoyed a lovely run in transit parked just off the speed but took an age to pick up the leader Baghdad and had no answer to the finishing burst of the winner Desert Skyline who tracked him throughout before being produced late to score by a widening 2.3 lengths.
He is another who is somehow safely in the Cup field, currently sitting 9th in the order of entry, but will join the Australian stable of Trent Bussuttin and Natalie Young for the remainder of his Cup prep.
Untried at anything further than 2400m and therefore has to be a query at the trip but he relaxes settles and travels well.
For me he is well below the class required to win a Melbourne Cup and is extremely poorly weighted in comparison to Cup top weights Kew Gardens (58kg) and Cross Current (57.5kg) who are both proven on or around the trip and at Group 1 level.
Mustajeer
Talented get back staying handicapper who was well ridden when never leaving the fence throughout in the Group 2 Ebor over 2787m at York on August 24th before coming through near the inner and angling wider in the straight to hit the front a fair way out but fought on too well to score impressively lumping 59.5kg to a ¾ of a length win over Red Galileo and Desert Skyline.
Has form prior to that excellent run in similar class events and appears to be an extremely consistent get back staying type who possesses a nice turn of foot at the finish of his races.
Class may be the query but you can’t deny his consistency or honesty and appears safely in the Cup field currently sitting 16th in the order of entry and will join the Kris Lees stable in Australia for the remainder of his Cup preparation.
Untried beyond 2816m but shapes as though the 3200m of the Cup would be no problem and looms as the kind of horse who could emerge as a Cup chance with the right run but with 55kg he’s probably burdened with 2-3kg too much and is too close in the weights to the likes of Kew Gardens and Cross Counter.
Kew Gardens
Genuine class galloper who could potentially prove to be Aidan O’Brien’s best ever chance to win the Melbourne Cup. Has received his fair share of weight with 58kg but really caught the eye with a slashing Cup trial when he steamed home late down the outside into second place in the Irish St Leger, chargeing home after being ridden quietly until well into the straight at the rear of the field.
Appeared well below his best when carrying 60.5kg, he finished a distant second behind Morando in a Group 3 over 2667m at Chester on a wet track on May 9th.
He looked much better back on top of the ground with that run under his belt at his next start on May 31st when he carried 57.5kg in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom 0ver 2420m, dashing to the front before being run down by Defoe over the final 150m with the first two coming right away from the rest of the field over the final 200m. Was then put aside again and resumed with that outstanding effort in the Irish St Leger.
Conventional thinking would say he’s weighted up to his best in the Cup but the reality is that he’s only carrying half a kilo more than when he won the English St Leger brilliantly as a 3yo.
The distance poses no doubt in my opinion and, if he turn up in the right order and anywhere near his Irish St Leger form, he should be the horse to beat. Historically there’s not much between him and Cross Counter.
Marmelo
Is it possible for a seven-year-old stallion with as many miles under the belt as Marmelo has, to be in career best form?
If it is then Marmelo is the exception to the rule, as his astute trainer Hughie Morrison has clearly found this horse’s happy place. This horse is settling better and racing more tractably than he has during his entire career and his trainer is plotting virtually the same mainly French staying path to the Melbourne Cup as he has in past years.
Marmelo flew over the final 100m to win from a near impossible position in a Group 3 over 2414m at Newbury on April 13th. He followed that up by taking on a crack field in the Group 1 Coronation Cup over 2420m on May 31st and finished fifth but wasn’t disgraced and you get the feeling he didn’t handle the tricky Epsom track.
Kicked off his usual French campaign at his next start with a sound fifth in a 2400m Group 1 event at St Cloud on June 30th. Followed that up with a narrow fast finishing second to Way To Paris in a 2800m Group 2 at Longchamp on July 14th and then atoned for that narrow defeat with a powerful ¾ of a length win in the Group 2 Prix Kergolay over 3000m at Deauville on August 18th.
Gets into the cup with 56kg, the same weight as last year and it took a freakish effort by Cross Counter to gun him down in last year’s Melbourne Cup and, if his recent form is any indication, he appears to be going into this year’s Cup in better shape than last year. In the 2018 Cup he was ridden quietly at the back of the field by jockey Hugh Bowman, who saved a heap of ground by sticking to nearer the fence on straightening and he sprinted to what look like a winning lead inside the 150m before being mown down late by Cross Current.
This year he meets that horse 6.5kg better for being beaten a length by the winner. If he travels across well and settles in then he appears to shape as an enormous chance again.
Prince of Arran
There’s a real sense of timing about this imposing Charlie Fellows trained 7yo gelding, who impressed at his fourth run back from spell when a game second to The Chosen One in the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400m at Caulfield on October 12.
It was the son of Shirocco’s first Australian start this preparation and he was ridden forward aggressively early to take up a handy position by jockey Michael Walker who settled him in 5th one off the fence.
After travelling well throughout about six lengths off a real stop start speed set by the former European galloper Haky, Walker began to gradually work him into the race three wide from the 950m and coming to the corner he was looming strongly out three and four wide. Given his head on straightening Prince Of Arran quickly got to Sully and Walker soon after went for home but the talented NZ 4yoThe Chosen One was really starting to hit top gear and joined in strongly with the pair coming three lengths clear of the rest of the field.
In the end though it was the superior turn of foot over the final 100m of Caulfield Cup chance, The Chosen One, that denied Prince Of Arran automatic entry into the Cup field.
The Murray Baker trained entire, beautifully ridden by rider Damian Lane, sustained a powerful finishing burst from well back in the field to draw clear late and score by half a length over a gallant Prince of Arran with Sully battling on well to hold down third a further 3.5 lengths astern.
Prior to his last run before departing for Australia there were a few question marks over how well he was actually going at his two previous runs back from a spell when unplaced on both occasions but his performance on the synthetic track at Kempton over 2413m in a strong Group 3 on September 3 indicated that he was starting to come to hand nicely for another tilt at the Melbourne Cup.
On that occasion Prince Of Arran settled midfield on the fence and charged through near the fence at the top of the straight before running out of fitness over the final 200m and gradually weakening into third btn 1.3 lengths from the winner Royal Line.
His last two runs have indicated that he is in just as good if not better shape than when he fought on strongly for third btn 3l behind Cross Counter in the 2018 Group 1 Melbourne Cup over 3200m at Flemington when carrying 53kgs. On that occasion he had to force his way into the Cup field on the Saturday just three days earlier by winning the Group 3 Hotham Handicap over 2500m at Flemington on November 3.
His trainer had been hoping to avoid this situation again but despite this hiccup everything indicates that he’s on track to run well again in this year’s Melbourne Cup.
Somehow though the light raced stayer is still only 38th in order of entry after running a terrific 3rd in the Melbourne Cup a year earlier meaning his connections will again be sweating on a start in the 24 horse field.
Carrying 53kg, the same weight as last year the gelding may yet be forced to run again prior to the Cup in order to again force his way into the field but if can gain a start he again appeals as one of the better chances in this year’s Cup.
