Racing
01/06 Epsom Preview: Broome looks the one to beat in The Derby
Day two of the Derby Festival at Epsom and our resident tipster returns to provide his picks in the Boosted £10,000 Pick 6 pool. The featured race of the day is one of the biggest on the calendar, The Derby, and he has some strong thoughts about the likely outcome.
14:00
A tricky contest to kick off Derby day. Nayef Road was an impressive winner of a Newmarket handicap on 1000 Guineas day, quickening away to win by 5l from stablemate Fraser Island.
He found the Dante too hot but his mark of 105 seems lofty and he may struggle again, even in calmer waters.
My preference is for Alkaamel, who also ran in a Newmarket handicap a day before Nayef Road, finishing second to Pogo. The form has been franked with the thir- placed Fox Leicester winning at Sandown on Thursday evening.
He has been raised 3lb for his Newmarket efforts but is a horse that always knocks on the door and is taken to finally get his head in front and kickstart a scintillating day of racing.
Selection: Alkaamel
14:35
Veracious and Nyaleti come here with points to prove after disappointing results last time out. It was a promising seasonal reappearance from Nyaleti in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day, finishing a length behind Worth Waiting for Mark Johnston.
However, she was well beaten by Lah Ti Dar in the Middleton at York two weeks ago and I think she may well struggle again here.
Veracious has not run since finishing fourth in the Dahlia and it’s suggested that she will strip fitter for the comeback run. She finished third in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and in the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last season. A replication of that form would be enough to take a weak Group 3.
In a contest that does not look like it will take much winning, Veracious should be up to the task.
Selection: Veracious
15:10
Bye Bye Hong Kong will need to step up is going in the right direction and is taken to win this in the colours of the late Leicester City chairman Vincai Srivaddhanaprabha.
He won a listed race at Chelmsford in April on reappearance before finishing a length in front of Oh This Is Us, who re-opposes here, at Windsor.
The suspicion is that, although Matterhorn is running respectably on turf, he is better on the all-weather. His 6l trouncing of Wissahickon is a good example and I think he will find at least a couple too good.
Zaaki is likely to be a warm order for Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute, having gotten the better of former St James’ Palace Stakes winner Barney Roy at Ascot on reappearance. He was better value for the win than the winning distance suggested and will be an incredibly dangerous opponent if on song.
However, Bye Bye Hong Kong and Silvestre De Sousa are taken to come out on top.
Selection: Bye Bye Hong Kong
15:45
They don’t come much trickier than this. A 5f cavalry charge across the Downs, where there are only a handful you can rule out.
The admirable Duke of Firenze has won on the previous two Saturdays and there won’t be a bigger cheer all weekend if the 10yo gets his head in front here. He has form figures in this race of 3-20-3-3-6 so he does loves it round Epsom. He is 17lb lower than he was for last year’s renewal, but no 10yo has ever won this race.
One horse I like to keep onside is Dark Shot. He is often the bridesmaid but seldom runs badly and the hustle and bustle of a race like this should suit him. He was second in the 2017 Dash off a 3lb higher mark and was fifth in last year’s renewal. He has warmed up with a solid fifth in a valuable handicap at York, before just being touched off by Duke of Firenze at the same track last Saturday.
I really believe this horse will be in the prize money again and is certainly one who is expected to go well.
Selection: Dark Shot
16:30
The weekend’s showpiece race and one of the greatest on the planet; the Epsom Derby is a unique and treasured event.
Aidan O’Brien has a battalion of seven runners, spearheaded by Chester Vase winner Sir Dragonet and dual Group 3 winner Broome. Indeed, O’Brien has over half the field as he chases his seventh Derby victory.
However, I believe O’Brien’s best prospect is Broome by a considerable distance. His form as a 2yo reads well on paper, finishing second behind Madhmoon before finding Royal Marine a neck too good in the Prix Jean-Luc Lugadere on Arc weekend.
The step up to 1m2f has been a revelation, with Broome bolting up by 8l in the Ballysax before winning the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown three weeks ago.
O’Brien himself has admitted he can be lazy in the middle of races but the talent is clearly there for all to see and I believe that he has a great chance in the Classic.
Anthony Van Dyck’s win in the Lingfield Derby Trial wasn’t flamboyant and he didn’t exactly beat a stellar field but did the job nicely enough and connections were insistent that he wasn’t fully tuned before the race. He shaped last season as though 6f-1m would be his trip but O’Brien has taken the decision to step him up and I think he will be rewarded on Saturday by finishing as the best of the rest behind Broome.
A speculative outsider is Norway. On ratings he won’t worry the principles but I think the tight Epsom track and better ground will suit him more than when he finished 8l behind stablemate Sir Dragonet at Chester. His impressive win of a listed race at Newmarket last season suggested that he was crying out for a step up in trip. He stayed on nicely at Chester over an extended 1m4f, suggesting that he will have the stamina required to be in with a shout at the finish.
Selections: Broome, Anthony Van Dyck, Norway
17:15
Sextant was an impressive winner of an Ascot handicap three weeks ago and looks the likeliest winner of this handicap.
He tanked through that race, hitting the front at the furlong pole and quickened away nicely. Although he’s now on a mark of 97, Sextant is a horse going in the right direction and, with Ryan Moore back on board, expect a big run.
Selection: Sextant
