We landed 7/8 in the Premier League predictor preview for the North West Derby on Sunday, with a Fabinho yellow card preventing us from scooping the lot. I say ‘us’, the Syndicate didn’t fill and was voided to a solo ticket, meaning the other contributors missed out on a nice 2.5x return so let’s get it filled this week! I’m hoping to go one better in the £10,000 Pick 8 for the Leicester vs. Chelsea match on Tuesday night. Read my latest Premier League predictor preview and join my Syndicate.
Premier League predictor: Leicester vs. Chelsea
What will the Correct Score be?
Third in the table Leicester City host seventh-placed Chelsea on Tuesday evening and I simply can’t believe how the bookies have priced this one. Despite a wretched run of form, in which they have won just two of their last seven matches, Chelsea are currently 11/8 favourites against a Leicester side who are unbeaten in five, winning three of them.
I would honestly have Leicester as favourites and am now convinced that it will take the removal of Frank Lampard to arrest The Blues’ serious underperformance in the league this season. The Chelsea legend continues to make some baffling selection decisions, like his stubborn refusal to play Calum Hudson-Odoi, who is patently their most in-form winger, in the league. I wonder just how low they will have to sink before Roman Abramovich acts.
They laboured to victory over the ten men of Fulham at the weekend and of their eight league wins this season, only one came against a team in the current top half (West Ham). Leicester, on the other hand, have already beaten Man City, Spurs and Arsenal this season and were comfortable in beating a very talented Southampton side at the weekend. The two clubs are on separate trajectories at the moment and I really think Leicester will win.
Chelsea have lost five games this season but they’ve scored in three of them, the last three in fact (2-1 vs. Wolves, 3-1 vs. Arsenal, 3-1, vs. Man City), and I can see a similar scoreline emerging here.
Leicester have conceded in three of their last four matches so they aren’t watertight and I’ll take them to win against a solitary Chelsea goal.
Selections: 2-1, 3-1
Will a penalty be taken?
Leicester are the undisputed penalty kings of the Premier League. They have won ten of them in the Premier League so far, four more than anybody else, and conceded just one, the joint fewest in the league. Chelsea have seen eight penalties in total, five in their favour and three against, so you definitely can’t rule out one of the goals (probably Leicester’s) coming via the spot. Therefore I’ll cover both options here.
Selections: Yes, No
Will a player be sent off?
One red card between them in 36 combined games. It’s a no from me.
Will a goal be scored in the 1st half?
These are two sides who definitely spring to life after the half-time interval.
12 of Leicester’s 33 goals scored (36%) have come in the first half, as well as 11/21 (52%) of their goals against. For Chelsea it’s just 10 of their 33 goals scored (30%) and 12/21 (57%) against.
I’d really like to just put ‘no’ in this leg but, given that I’ve predicted either three or four match goals, it is extremely unlikely that all would come after a goalless first half. Also it worth noting that Chelsea have now seen a first half goal in four of their last five matches.
Therefore I’m left with little option but to use an extra selection to cover both options.
Selections: Yes, No
How many corners will be taken by Leicester?
Brendan Rodgers’ side average just over five corners a game. Their last five games have seen them win 5, 5, 2, 3 and 2 at an average of 3.4 a game. So they’re generally not prolific in this market.
I think Leicester have few corners owing to their counter-attacking style of play. Jamie Vardy breaking at pace doesn’t really lend itself to packed penalty boxes and scrambled clearances so I’ll stick with their current low trend and take 3-4 Leicester corners.
How many corners will be taken by Chelsea?
Chelsea are at the upper end of the Premier League corners table, averaging around 6.2 per game. They’ve had them by the absolute bucketload recently, with their last five games producing 5, 9, 11, 5, 12 at an average of 8.4 per game.
One of the lower totals in that came against in form Manchester City in a game which they were dominated as well. Leicester are a very good side who could keep that total down a bit but I’d still expect them to win a fair few. I’ll take between five and eight in total.
Selections: 5-6, 7-8
How many cards will be shown to Chelsea?
As well as being penalty kings, Leicester are the Premier League badboys at the moment as well, earning 37 yellow cards which is the joint highest. It’s an average of just over two a game so I think it makes sense to cover one and two here, as they should pick up at least a single booking.
Selections: 1, 2
How many cards will be show to Leicester?
With 27 bookings, Chelsea have earned ten fewer than their opponents here but it’s still the eighth most in the league. I’ll cover the same and hope that a few tackles do go flying in.
Selections: 1, 2
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