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Bundesliga betting preview: 22nd – 24th May

Bundesliga betting preview: 22nd – 24th May

Ed Acteson returns to tackle this weekend’s Bundesliga action after his Syndicate nailed the Pick 8 after last weekend’s preview, earning a 16x return on their stake. This week he’s taking on the Rollover 1X2 Pick 8 in addition to the £30,000 Correct Score Pick 4. Read on for stats tables and analysis in our Bundesliga betting preview or just click here if you want to jump straight into Ed’s Pick 8 Syndicate or his Pick 4 Syndicate.

 

League Table

 

Position Team Played Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1  Bayern Munich 26 18 4 4 75 26 49 58
2  Dortmund 26 16 6 4 72 33 39 54
3  Monchengladbach 26 16 4 6 52 31 21 52
4  RB Leipzig 26 14 9 3 63 27 36 51
5  Leverkusen 26 15 5 6 49 31 18 50
6  Wolfsburg 26 10 9 7 36 31 5 39
7  Freiburg 26 10 7 9 35 36 -1 37
8  Schalke 04 26 9 10 7 33 40 -7 37
9  Hoffenheim 26 10 5 11 35 46 -11 35
10  FC Koln 26 10 3 13 41 47 -6 33
11  Hertha Berlin 26 8 7 11 35 48 -13 31
12  Union Berlin 26 9 3 14 32 43 -11 30
13  E. Frankfurt 25 8 4 13 39 44 -5 28
14  FC Augsburg 26 7 6 13 37 54 -17 27
15  FSV Mainz 26 8 3 15 36 55 -19 27
16  Dusseldorf 26 5 8 13 27 50 -23 23
17  Werder Bremen 25 4 6 15 28 59 -31 18
18  Paderborn 26 4 5 17 30 54 -24 17

 

Form Table (Last 8)

 

Position Team Played Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Bayern Munich 8 7 1 0 25 4 21 22
2 Dortmund 8 7 0 1 26 6 20 21
3 Leverkusen 8 6 1 1 22 9 13 19
4 Monchengladbach 8 5 2 1 19 11 8 17
5 Wolfsburg 8 4 3 1 17 10 7 15
6 FC Koln 8 4 1 3 19 14 5 13
7 Hertha Berlin 8 3 3 2 13 15 -2 12
8 RB Leipzig 8 2 5 1 12 6 6 11
9 E. Frankfurt 8 3 1 4 12 15 -3 10
10 Union Berlin 8 3 1 4 11 16 -5 10
11 FSV Mainz 8 2 3 3 10 14 -4 9
12 Dusseldorf 8 1 5 2 9 13 -4 8
13 Freiburg 8 2 2 4 6 12 -6 8
14 Hoffenheim 8 2 2 4 9 16 -7 8
15 Paderborn 8 1 2 5 9 14 -5 5
16 FC Augsburg 8 1 1 6 6 18 -12 4
17 Werder Bremen 8 1 1 6 5 18 -13 4
18 Schalke 04 8 0 4 4 2 19 -17 4

 

Home Table

 

Position Team Played Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Dortmund 13 10 3 0 45 10 35 33
2 Bayern Munich 13 9 2 2 38 11 27 29
3 Monchengladbach 13 9 2 2 30 16 14 29
4 RB Leipzig 13 7 5 1 33 14 19 26
5 Leverkusen 13 7 4 2 25 13 12 25
6 E. Frankfurt 13 6 3 4 28 19 9 21
7 Schalke 04 13 5 6 2 18 18 0 21
8 FC Koln 13 6 2 5 22 18 4 20
9 Freiburg 12 6 2 4 16 14 2 20
10 Union Berlin 13 6 1 6 18 18 0 19
11 Wolfsburg 13 4 6 3 16 13 3 18
12 FC Augsburg 13 5 3 5 25 23 2 18
13 Hoffenheim 14 5 1 8 19 34 -15 16
14 FSV Mainz 13 4 2 7 15 21 -6 14
15 Dusseldorf 13 3 4 6 13 23 -10 13
16 Hertha Berlin 13 3 3 7 14 28 -14 12
17 Paderborn 13 2 1 10 17 31 -14 7
18 Werder Bremen 12 1 2 9 9 30 -21 5

 

Away Table

 

Position Team Played Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Bayern Munich 13 9 2 2 37 15 22 29
2 RB Leipzig 13 7 4 2 30 13 17 25
3 Leverkusen 13 8 1 4 24 18 6 25
4 Monchengladbach 13 7 2 4 22 15 7 23
5 Dortmund 13 6 3 4 27 23 4 21
6 Wolfsburg 13 6 3 4 20 18 2 21
7 Hoffenheim 12 5 4 3 16 12 4 19
8 Hertha Berlin 13 5 4 4 21 20 1 19
9 Freiburg 14 4 5 5 19 22 -3 17
10 Schalke 04 13 4 4 5 15 22 -7 16
11 FC Koln 13 4 1 8 19 29 -10 13
12 Werder Bremen 13 3 4 6 19 29 -10 13
13 FSV Mainz 13 4 1 8 21 34 -13 13
14 Union Berlin 13 3 2 8 14 25 -11 11
15 Paderborn 13 2 4 7 13 23 -10 10
16 Dusseldorf 13 2 4 7 14 27 -13 10
17 FC Augsburg 13 2 3 8 12 31 -19 9
18 E. Frankfurt 12 2 1 9 11 25 -14 7

 

Both Teams To Score Table

 

Team Both Teams Scored Games Played BTTS %
 Monchengladbach 18 26 69%
 FC Augsburg 17 26 65%
 Paderborn 17 26 65%
 RB Leipzig 17 26 65%
 E. Frankfurt 16 25 64%
 FSV Mainz 16 26 62%
 Werder Bremen 16 25 64%
 Hoffenheim 15 26 58%
 Bayern Munich 15 26 58%
 Dusseldorf 15 26 58%
 Freiburg 15 26 58%
 Wolfsburg 15 26 58%
 FC Koln 15 26 58%
 Leverkusen 14 26 54%
 Dortmund 14 26 54%
 Union Berlin 14 26 54%
 Hertha Berlin 14 26 54%
 Schalke 04 13 26 50%

 

Winning Margins Table

 

Overall Winning margins (goals difference) Wins Draws Defeats Losing margins (goals difference)
1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+
 Bayern Munich 3 5 2 8 18 4 4 3 1
 Dortmund 4 3 1 8 16 6 4 2 1 1
 Dusseldorf 2 3 5 8 13 4 3 4 2
 E. Frankfurt 4 1 1 2 8 4 13 7 4 2
 FC Augsburg 4 1 1 1 7 6 13 4 5 1 3
 FC Koln 3 3 2 2 10 3 13 4 4 2 3
 Freiburg 6 2 2 10 7 9 3 5 1
 FSV Mainz 3 3 2 8 3 15 7 3 1 4
 Hertha Berlin 5 1 1 1 8 7 11 4 2 2 3
 Hoffenheim 6 2 2 10 5 11 4 2 3 2
 Leverkusen 6 4 4 1 15 5 6 3 1 1 1
 Monchengladbach 6 7 2 1 16 4 6 3 3
 Paderborn 2 2 4 5 17 9 4 3 1
 RB Leipzig 2 5 4 3 14 9 3 1 2
 Schalke 04 5 2 1 1 9 10 7 1 1 2 3
 Union Berlin 3 6 9 3 14 7 5 2
 Werder Bremen 4 4 6 15 5 4 4 2
 Wolfsburg 6 2 1 1 10 9 7 3 3 1

 

Review of Last Weekend

The Bundesliga was an extremely welcome return to action for my Syndicate who cruised through the Rollover Pick 8 and yielded a 1540% return on our investment, turning £48 into £787.44. It could have been even better had I resisted the urge to make two separate Cash Outs that combined to 50% of the ticket but it seemed right at the time.

A couple of lessons I learned from the opening week. Firstly, home advantage seems to be largely out the window without the presence of fans in the stadium, just proving their value. Of the nine matches played over the weekend, there was just a single home win, three draws and five away victories. The win, incidentally, was Dortmund who were one of the bankers of the weekend.

Secondly, it seems as though the new conditions could extend the gulf in class between the bigger and smaller sides. Five of the top six in the league won, with RB Leipzig the only exception, following their draw against seventh-placed Freiburg. The aggregate goal difference of those five winning sides was 15-3, with only Wolfsburg failing to win by two or more goals. My theory is that the lack of supporters is actually easing the pressure on the big players thus making them more comfortable. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

 

1X2 – Pick 8 Preview

Hertha Berlin vs. Union Berlin

Fri, 19:30 (BT Sport 1)

A Friday night Berlin derby to kick things off between two sides who emerged from the opening weekend with credit. Hertha were comprehensive in winning 3-0 away to Hoffenheim, whilst Union lost to Bayern Munich but managed to keep it to 2-0, potentially not a terrible result if my theory about the big teams having an advantage proves accurate.

They’re very close in the league and form table but you’d still expect Hertha to emerge victorious. However, given that they are 16th in the home table and I don’t want to crash out in the first leg, I’ll back Hertha and the draw.

Verdict: Hertha Berlin / Draw

 

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Sat, 14:30 (BT Sport 2)

An extremely tough match to call between two Champions League-chasing sides, as third host fifth in the table. There’s really not much between them here.

Both won convincingly away from home at the weekend, both sit near the top of the form table and they are both 3rd in the respective home and away tables.

So how to pick between them? The short answer is, I can’t. Looking at the winning margins tells you that these two sides don’t tend to batter their opposition. They’ve each won by four or more goals once this season, compared to Bayern and Dortmund who have managed it eight times apiece. I think it will be a tight affair and relatively low scoring. Too close for me too call though so I’m going to be a wimp and back all three outcomes.

Verdict: Borussia Monchengladbach / Draw / Bayer Leverkusen

 

Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund

Sat,14:30 (BT Sport 1)

Another tough match but one that I would expect Dortmund to come through. Wolfsburg’s home form has been innocuous this season, they have the 11th best record in the league, whereas Dortmund are fifth in the away table. Factor in the apparently levelling of playing fields between home and away sides and it should come down to class, of which the away side have a deep well.

In Erling Haaland they one of the best young strikers in world football at the moment, even if he isn’t so great at post-match interviews. Add in Jadon Sancho, who they only played for the last ten minutes of last week’s game, and they’ve got more than enough firepower to win this one.

Verdict: Dortmund

 

Paderborn vs. Hoffenheim

Sat 14:30

Paderborn managed a 0-0 draw away to Dusseldorf last weekend, a result that didn’t particularly help either of them with Paderborn still rooted to the foot of the table. Hoffenheim were embarrassed at home by Hertha Berlin but it wasn’t a completely unexpected result as we pointed out Hoffenheim’s dodgy home form.

They’re significantly better away, with their five wins and three draws from 12 games giving them the seventh best away record in the division. Paderborn, as you’d expect from the side at the foot of the division, are woeful at home, winning just twice in 13 attempts. Hoffenheim to restore their reputations here.

Verdict: Hoffenheim

 

Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen

Sat, 14:30 (BT Sport 3)

It was only a late equaliser that prevent Freiburg from beaten RB Leipzig away from home last week, but their 1-1 draw was still one of the results of the round. That being said, Freiburg are seventh in the table on merit and have proved their class throughout the season.

For poor Werder, their 4-1 hammering by Leverkusen marked another step towards relegation as their 40 year stint in the Bundesliga looks set to come to a close. They’re nine points from safety with just nine games remaining and terrible goal difference. Bremen did little to convince me that they’ll be anything more than sacrificial lambs here.

Verdict: Freiburg

 

Schalke vs. Augsburg

Sun, 12:30 (BT Sport 1)

Schalke were predictably dismantled away to Dortmund in the opening match of last weekend. They were in the game for the first half an hour but, when Erling Haaland notched the opener, it was game over and they eventually went down 4-0. Augsburg also lost, albeit slightly more respectably, at home to Wolfsburg.

Schalke are six places higher than Augsburg so should be favourites for this, though with four draws and four losses in their last eight they sit at the foot of the form table as the only side in the division not to win in that period. Augsburg are only higher on goal difference, with a single win and a draw in eight, so we should see two sides low on confidence here.

Schalke have the seventh best home record with Augsburg boasting the 17th best away record so Schalke might finally get a win here but I’m going to include the draw just in case.

Verdict: Schalke / Draw

 

Mainz vs. RB Leipzig

Sun, 14:30 (BT Sport 1)

Each of them came from behind to draw against sides close to them in the league last week but that’s where the similarities end. Leipzig, spearheaded by the imperious Timo Werner, are fourth and still with an outside chance of winning the the league whereas Mainz are just a place above the relegation zone and fighting for their lives.

In every metric which could be relevant here, whether it’s home form, away form, goals scored or goals conceded, Leipzig are comfortably the better side. They are the second best outfit away from home in the league and desperately need to get back to winning ways, which they will.

Verdict: RB Leipzig

 

FC Koln vs. Dusseldorf

Sun, 17:00 (BT Sport 1)

A tricky one to finish. FC Koln are ten points ahead of Dusseldorf in the league but must be dispirited after allowing a two goal lead to slip away last week. Dusseldorf might also be frustrated after failing to beat lowly Paderborn and edge towards safety.

I do like Koln here. They’re in good form recently (well, before the 2 month break) and have been strong at home this season. Dusseldorf have also been useless on their travels. However, again, harking back to the possible erosion of home advantage and Koln being disappointed after last week, I’ll back the draw in addition to the home win.

Verdict: FC Koln / Draw

 

Join Ed’s Pick 8 Syndicate by clicking here.

 

Correct Score – Pick 4 Preview

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Sat, 14:30 (BT Sport 2)

Pick 8 selections: Borussia Monchengladbach / Draw / Bayer Leverkusen

As mentioned above, I couldn’t pick these two apart here. Monchengladbach have had the highest percentage of BTTS games in the league with 69% (18/26) whilst Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 54% (14/26). Leverkusen have scored and conceded in five of their last seven and Monchengladbach in each of their last eight. So I think the assumption that both teams will net is a good starting point.

I stated that I don’t think there will be much between them or that either side will run away with it and I stand by that, so I’m going to perm a few results accordingly.

Verdict: 2-1, 3-1, 1-1 1-2, 1-3

 

Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund

Sat, 14:30 (BT Sport 1)

Pick 8 selection: Dortmund

Dortmund to win but by how many? Wolfburg have only lost by three or more goals once so far this season, with their other six defeats coming by one or two goals. Seven of Dortmund’s 16 wins have come by those margins, so that is my suggested outcome here.

Wolfsburg aren’t heavy scorers and Dortmund have a mean defence so it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that they could shut them out. I’ll take the relatively low scoring wins for Dortmund.

Verdict: 0-1, 1-2, 0-2

 

Bayern Munich vs. Frankfurt

Sat, 17:30 (BT Sport 1)

Pick 8 selection: n/a

I’m going to lazily assume that Bayern are a lock to win this and win it comfortably. It’s the team at the  top of the table who have won seven and drawn one of their last eight games by an aggregate of 25-4, versus the side in 13th who sit bottom of the away table.

Given that eight of Bayern’s 18 wins have come by four or more goals and that I need to keep the perms down, I’m going to count on a demolition job here by taking ‘Other Home Win’, which effectively means Bayern to win and score four or more goals, a feat they’ve already managed nine times this season.

Verdict: Other Home Win

 

Schalke vs. Augsburg

Sun, 12:30 (BT Sport 1)

Pick 8 selection: Schalke / Draw

A bit of a mismash of styles here. Schalke tend to keep it tight at both ends and aren’t prolific scorers but don’t concede too many either. Augsburg are much more open and have scored four more and conceded 14 more than their opponents who are six places above them.

Five of Schalke’s nine wins have been by a single goal, whereas nine of Augsburg’s 13 defeats were by two or less. I’ll reckon it will be close but both teams should score.

Verdict: 2-1, 3-1, 1-1

 

Join Ed’s Pick 4 Syndicate by clicking here.

 


 

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