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2000 Guineas Betting Preview: Pinatubo to show his class

It’s 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket and Steven Dowler has his heart set on overcoming the £10,000 Place 6. Read his 2000 Guineas betting preview and join his Syndicate.

 

2000 Guineas Betting Preview

 

13.15 – Class 2 Handicap – 5f

We start off the day with a tricky, competitive sprint race. I have four picked out that are worth adding to our ticket to get us over the first hurdle. 

BLUE DE VEGA hasn’t managed to win on the turf since July, 2018 at Ascot. However, he is 5lbs below that success and has done most of his racing off higher marks in better class company. He hardly ever runs a bad race and is seen to best effect on quick ground which is exactly what he will get this weekend. His record after 3+ month break reads 32322 meaning he goes well fresh and he will be fitter than most. Blue De Vega is also drawn nicely in stall 7 so why wouldn’t he have a decent chance. 

Stuart Williams run three in the race and I like his 4yo Street Parade. He will be ridden by Jason Watson and both trainer/jockey do well at this venue. He has run three good races this year on the AW and is now 6lb lower (95) then when second at this track last year over C&D on similar ground (101). Street Parade ticks plenty of boxes for this event so he is worth plenty of interest in a wide-open contest. 

David O’Meara normally has his runners fast out of the block and LEODIS DREAM has a nice chance. He is capable of good form at this level and is actually 2/2 on his return to action. He is drawn well in stall 8 and a strong pace will only enhance his chance. Stuart Williams other runner ROYAL BIRTH should run a good race. His last six runs have yielded figures of 100+ meaning he comes into this race in good form and the booking of Andrea Atzeni on a horse is always a positive. 

Selections: BLUE DE VEGA, STREET PARADE, LEODIS DREAM, ROYAL BIRTH

 

13.50 – Group 3 Palace House Stakes – 5f

JUDICIAL is just short of Group 1 form but he is a class act below that level. He loves this type of ground and was narrowly denied in this race two years ago on his return when beaten a neck, splitting two Group 1 winners – Mabs Cross and Alpha Dephini. Judicial won over C&D and is a former multiple Group 3/Listed winner whilst also being the top rated horse in this weekends race at 109. I think he has a fantastic chance of going close again this year because it is hard to find any negatives in his form. 

Stall 1 doesn’t often bode well for runners in this race but an exception can be made for MAJOR JUMBO who is also a multiple Group 3/Listed winner and was narrowly denied in this race last year when third behind Mabs Cross and Equilateral with Judicial back in seventh. He is a very consistent horse and must have a huge chance of winning this with his form figures after +3 month break reading 2121 and being the second clear highest rated in the line-up. 

While QUEENS GIFT is one of the biggest improvers in the race. She has won two of her last four starts, with her two latest second placed efforts coming in listed company behind Judicial and Equilateral. Her form over 5f reads an impressive 22021122 and the Paul Mulrennan/Michael Dods combination has proved lethal in recent seasons. 

Selections: MAJOR JUMBO, JUDICIAL, QUEENS GIFT

 

14.25 – Group 2 Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes – 1m2f

A competitive Group 2 Fillies race and I think it will be won by one of Godolphin’s two runners to be honest. Magic Lily ticks a lot of boxes having already proven herself to be useful at the highest level whilst also having course form to her name. She has won twice this year at Meydan including a Group 2 before finishing a good second in a Group 1 behind her stablemate Barney Roy. 

That form is clearly more than good enough to win this event and Magic Lily also finished third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile here three years ago. She has proved she still retains all her ability being lightly raced throughout her career and despite conceding 3lb to her opponents I think she will win this. 

TEREBELLUM looks a solid backup option on our ticket. She is actually rated the exact same as Magic Lily at 110 and has won two of her four starts. She won a Group 2 in France two runs ago before finishing fifth in a Group 1 when last seen. Frankie Dettori rides her, so she can’t be discounted here. 

Selections: MAGIC LILY, TEREBELLUM

 

15.00 – Newmarket Listed Stakes – 1m2f 

WALDKONIG made one of the finest debut impressions last year when scoring by 9 lengths at Wolverhampton. The son of Kingman hasn’t been seen since but he is clearly held in the highest regard and with Frankie Dettori on her back this time, she is expected to pass this test with flying colours and remain unbeaten for John Gosden. 

THE FIRST KING shouldn’t be overlooked here despite being the outsider of the field. He ran really well on debut in France for Paul Cole when narrowly denied in second place before making amends at Wolverhampton last time out when beating a well regarded sort. He actually ticks a lot of boxes for the race so the only reason I can see why The First King is so big in the betting is down to the fact that if he was trained by a big yard he would be much shorter in the market.

Selections: WALDKONIG, THE FIRST KING

 

15.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes – 1m 

I personally think this is PINATUBO’s race to lose. He ticks nearly every trend and has looked unbeatable in all his races to date which is why is he is 6 from 6 with multiple Group 1’s to his name. If he does stay the trip and has improved from two to three then he will surely win and provide William Buick with a first 2000 Guineas’ success. 

Having said that, I do think WICHITA is the best alternative choice in the race. I have long fancied him for the 2000 Guineas’ due to him ticking a lot of boxes for the race and now with the presence of Frankie Dettori in the saddle, that is just icing on the cake and I would be disappointed if Wichita finishes out of the frame. 

Selections: PINATUBO, WICHITA

 

16.10 – Class 3 Handicap – 1m

MONTATHAM could be a handicap plot by connections. He is one of the least exposed in the line-up and every race he ran in last year showed us he is a horse with a lot of potential for William Haggas. I think he is better than his current mark of 89, and we will see here whether that becomes a reality. 

A horse at a big price I really like is AMBASSADORIAL trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam. He was a smart horse between 2016-2018 when trained in Ireland and last year he did most of his racing on the AW when having his first season in the UK. This year he has run four lovely races in Meydan behind some quality racehorses. 

Ambassadorial makes his return to the UK on a career low-Mark 89. He won on his first start last season at Chelmsford off a mark 95 in a class 3 handicap so he is clearly well-in here off his current mark and his form after a long break reads 131. Based on all this information, it is clear to see he has a superb chance of running a huge race. 

Finally, we have NONIOS near the bottom of the weights who has racked up a fine sequence of figures on the clock. There is a slight suspicion he is better on the artificial surface but if he can put in one good performance on the turf then his current mark makes him an extremely well-handicapped horse. 

Selections: AMBASSADORIAL, NONIOS, MONTATHAM

 


 

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