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Weekend betting preview: Freiburg set to be thrown to the Wolves

Last week I opted to perm the draw and the away side in the first leg of my weekend betting preview on the basis that “I couldn’t bear to go out in the first leg”. I should have known in that instant that I had cursed myself to that exact eventuality.

Although my Syndicate went on to land 5/8 legs, not a complete disaster, failing to make it to the Saturday was frustrating and I’m determined to fare better this week in the Rollover Pick 8 and return to winning ways. Read on for my weekend betting preview and join my Syndicate here.

 

Weekend Betting Preview

 

Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig

Fri, 19:30

Leipzig’s hopes of finishing second were dealt a huge blow by their home draw with bottom-of-the-table Paderborn last week, a match they finished with ten men. Coincidentally their opponents this week, Hoffenheim, suffered the same fate of losing a man before drawing against a side in the bottom three.

Neither will take much confidence from those results and, although I’m half expecting a reaction from Leipzig here, I’m not confident enough in a side who have drawn five of their last seven games, a sequence of results that has removed them from the title race.

Hoffenheim are patchy as well and, given that I’m still sore about losing in the opening leg last week, I’ll take the draw as well as the away side and hope lightning doesn’t strike twice.

Verdict: Draw & RB Leipzig

 

FC Koln vs. Union Berlin

Sat, 14:30

Two sides in dire straights. 12th and 14th respectively in the league, 16th and 18th in the form table. Neither side has won since the restart and Union, in particular, will be looking over their shoulders at the relegation zone.

It’s one of those games that could really go any way. A win for either side could kickstart their season but, for me, the draw is a strong runner. Although the lack of fans has largely negated home advantage, I can’t ignore the fact that Union are the worst away side in the league have still lost their two away games since returning 4-0 and 4-1. Therefore I’ll take a chance on Koln as well.

Verdict: FC Koln & Draw

 

Wolfsburg vs. Freiburg

Sat, 14:30

Had this game occurred last week then I would have been all over Wolfsburg for the win. However, Freiburg’s victory over Borussia Monchengladbach, two places above Wolfsburg in the table, makes things slightly harder to predict.

However, I’m going to stick to my guns and take Wolfsburg for the win here. Freiburg haven’t won consecutive league games since the opening matches of the season when they beat Mainz and Paderborn, two sides that will probably end up being relegated. They’ve failed to repeat the trick since and, keeping in mind that their win last weekend was against ten men and their first victory in five attempts, I’m happy to oppose them against a Wolfsburg side in good nick.

Verdict: Wolfsburg

 

Paderborn vs. Werder Bremen

Sat, 14:30

The two sides at the foot of the table meet and a victory for either could condemn the other to the second tier.

Surprisingly, in their 11 combined games since the restart the pair have only lost four times with Paderborn only tasting defeat once in five. That they drew the other four though tells it’s own story.

Paderborn haven’t led for a minute in any of the five matches and have scored just three times, so will be sized up by a Werder Bremen side who have beaten mid-table opposition in Schalke and Freiburg in that time.

My theory in this one is that Paderborn simply have to win and, therefore, sitting back and relying on their defensive resilience isn’t enough. They need to demonstrate more ambition which could open them up to Werder counter-attacking. I’m going to take the away side to send Paderborn packing.

Verdict: Werder Bremen

 

Hertha Berlin vs. E Frankfurt

Sat, 14:30

Hertha have been playing very well in recent weeks and I tipped them to upset Dortmund last week by claiming at least a draw. They didn’t manage it, losing 1-0, but it took Dortmund until the 58th minute to break them down and, against a side who have scored an average of 2.7 goals a game this season, it wasn’t the worst result.

Frankfurt were on a good mini-run of seven points from three tough games until they came up against 15th-placed Mainz last week and lost 2-0 at home. Go figure. Was it a mere blip or has that embarrassment dented their confidence?

Hertha are a side I really like and I’m going to give them another go here. Eintracht have only avoded defeat in five of their 15 away games and I’m hoping that record worsens further, although will add in the draw to be safe.

Verdict: Hertha Berlin & Draw

 

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Monchengladbach

Sat, 17:30

Bayern need two more wins to wrap up the Bundesliga title, although one would be enough if Dortmund slip up.  My theory is that they’ll go all out to achieve those wins quickly before easing off to focus on the Champions League instead. At that point, they’ll probably become opposable in the league.

Until then, it’s difficult to mount much of a case against them and my argument for Monchengladbach was dented severely when they let me down so badly last week.

My big issue, though, is that as per normal the huge majority of pool units will be on Bayern and, as such, when they eventually do slip up, not backing any other selection will be a huge wasted opportunity within the pool. So I’m going to back Bayern and the draw, fully expecting them to win but hoping that they take their eye off the ball.

Verdict: Bayern Munich & Draw

 

Athletic Bilbao vs. Atletico Madrid

Sun, 13:00

We’re off to sunny Spain for the penultimate leg as La Liga makes a triumphant return to action. With little in the way of form to go on after such a long lay off and both sides within a few places of each other in the league, it’s not a leg I’ve got much time for.

Inevitably Atletico will have their backers but, despite knocking Liverpool out of the Champions League, they’ve had an average season and find themselves in sixth and in a three-way scrap for the Champions League places. I’ve got perms to use up so am not going to risk anything on what is unknown. Therefore I’ll just back all three selections and hope that the one with the fewest units attached lands.

Verdict: Athletic Bilbao & Draw & Atletico Madrid

 

Schalke vs. Leverkusen

Sun, 17:00

You have to go back to January 17th to find the last league win for poor Schalke who have had a bizarre season. They were third after 13 games  but, after beating Borussia Monchengladbach on that day in January, their season has unravelled. Schalke have failed to win in the 12 games since, drawing five of them.

They’ve conceded 26 in that run and scored just four, demonstrating just how absurdly low on confidence in front of goal they are. It has been relegation form and, were it not for their strong early season form, they could be bang in trouble right now.

Leverkusen have won three and lost two since the restart. They score for fun and their games are action-packed. Although they are prone to poor defensive performances, against goal shy Schalke they shouldn’t have many problems and I think they’ll win with ease.

Verdict: Leverkusen

 

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