Sport
Are Manchester City now Champions League favourites?
Monday’s Champions League draw could not have gone any better for Manchester City. Still recovering from their victory and scrap with Manchester United, the Premier League leaders saw the glorious sight of Basel pulled out of the bowl. Given that they could have drawn Real Madrid or Juventus, this was as good as it could possibly get for Pep Guardiola.
It’s the sort of draw that makes winning your group worth it. City topped theirs with ease, which is hardly surprising given their almost flawless first half of the season. A matchday six defeat to Shakhtar was the only failure in the group stage, when Guardiola fielded a heavily rotated team.
Thus far, this season has been everything City dreamt of when they appointed Guardiola. Eleven points clear atop the Premier League table, comfortable Champions League progression and still on course to lift the Carabao Cup. Even by Guardiola’s own lofty standards, this has been a remarkable four months.
Continue along this path, and we will soon be talking about City as the best team in the Premier League era. Arsenal’s invincibles, the treble winning Manchester United side and Chelsea’s 2004-05 team all get thrust into such a debate, and City, of course, have to maintain this for another few months to even get close to that discussion. Over this – albeit relatively short – spell, though, City have been superior to any English club in the last two decades.
European Focus
The ultimate goal for City is Champions League glory. As it was for Chelsea until their 2012 success. Becoming synonymous with the latter stages of Europe’s premier competition is a key box to tick as a growing club. City have only made the semi-finals on one occasion.
Translating domestic dominance into European silverware is no guarantee; just ask Juventus. Guardiola – as his detractors will hurry to tell you – could not bring a Champions League trophy to Bayern Munich either.
City are faced with a similar task. Just like Juventus and Bayern in previous years, their domestic fate is comfortable. Guardiola can afford to tinker with his selection in the league. Kevin de Bruyne, David Silva and Fernandinho can be kept fresh for the midweek continental challengers.
This contributes to City being favourites for the competition. A few bookmakers have dropped their odds significantly since they drew Basel.
What was so ideal about that draw, though, was how other matches fell for City. Two of the other favourites for the competition, Paris Saint Germain and Real Madrid, were drawn against one another. One of Chelsea and Barcelona will go out at the last 16, too. Not only did Guardiola get the best possible opponent, Monday confirmed only two of Chelsea, Real Madrid, PSG and Barcelona would make the quarter-finals. City, meanwhile, are pencilled in for the last eight already.
Derby Day Relief
Moving on from the draw, Sunday’s victory plays a kind role in the inflation of their Champions League credentials.
With their lead now into double figures, City have margin for error. A large margin, in fact. They can lose three more matches than Manchester United in the remainder of the season and still win the title. City have not lost once in the league this season.
If Guardiola gets to the latter weeks of January and wants to change half his team for a league match in preparation for the Basel tie, he can. They will probably still win, but – even if they don’t – it is hardly crisis point. Prioritising the Champions League will not cost City anything.
This will become even more important in the quarters and semi-finals. The title might be wrapped up should City make the final four. The following Champions League ties will be more challenging than Basel, but City will have the luxury of breathing space. The gap to second place could be even greater, and that might be the period when de Bruyne and Silva are in particular need of a breather.
Had their lead been chopped to five points last weekend, the arduous winter schedule would be a greater threat to City’s push for multiple trophies. Rotation begins to carry a smidgen of risk, even for a team with the depth of City.
Injuries or signings in January could change it for Guardiola. As of now, though, their Premier League lead shows no sign of decreasing and, with each week it doesn’t, their chances of an all-time great season increase.
Will anyone stop them?
City belong as favourites for the Champions League. Everything is pointing in their favour right now. We can talk in a never-ending cycle of hypotheticals about injuries or a collapse in form, but their route to domestic and European triumph is clear.
Three points on Sunday extended a near-perfect beginning to the season. The draw on Monday continued in the same fashion.
Even without the benefit of a fortunate draw and Premier League comfort, I do not see a team who could stop this City side over two legs. Sides have the attack to hurt them, but no team is close to being able to halt this City team.
It could be so different by February. At the time of writing, however, it would be a surprise if City did not win the Champions League.
