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Haydock Tips: Maghfoor represents value against the short favourite

He’s in sensational form at the moment after his Syndicate landed 96 out of 432 lines on Wednesday and now TFA has written us this in-depth preview of Friday’s Haydock card to try and decipher the best bets in the Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6. His main fancy of the day is Maghfoor who he suspects represents value against short priced favourite.

 

5.50 Haydock

I initially wanted to take on Mr Coco Bean here as he will be a short price and has never looked like winning off a mark of 65 before. However, ignoring his blip at Wetherby three starts ago on soft ground, he has the profile of a very progressive individual and it is only 4lbs higher than when second of 15 over course and distance before following up that run with a win last time. Will surely run well here unless it repeats the Wetherby blip.

Pioneering is very well handicapped these days. I’ve backed him twice this season on soft ground and he has run well both times. He’s been dropped another 2lbs here and, sooner or later, will pop up and win again. My concern was the ground but, looking through his form, he does have a win on firm ground and has run a couple of fourth places too, so although he clearly wants softer ground, he might get away with it.

The other one I like who will probably be a massive price is Maghfoor. He might be the value bet against the fav, although you have to forgive his last race when he went too fast and tailed off to finish last. I backed him that day but it was a crazy ride from the front. Assuming the jockey sets better fractions this time, should run well.

Place 6 Selections – Mr Coco Bean, Pioneering, Maghfoor

 

6.20 Haydock

This is a trappy affair with seven runners, although the top three in the handicap have a slight class angle on the other four and I’ll be disappointed if one of them don’t place.

Tenax has a tendency to miss the break and finish late. I suspect that the day he breaks on terms, he’ll probably win. He’s down another 1lb to a mark of 80 and, though he’s been beaten on his last five starts from marks of 80-81, he hasn’t really run a bad race. Assuming he can get away on terms, should put on another solid performance.

Pendleton is a likely drifter in this race as his three turf runs have come on very soft ground and I’ve no idea if he will cope with firm ground or not. This uncertainty will probably lead to market weakness but I doubt connections would run him on ground he couldn’t cope with and it’s not like they expected soft ground, so I suspect it might go on firm ground. Assuming it does, he is well enough handicapped to take a hand in the finish.

Magical Spirit is improving at a rate of knots and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t prove better than a 78 rated handicapper in time. Beat a horse I know well last time (Queen of Burgundy) and although he’s up 7lbs, I’m not sure it’s enough to stop him.

Place 6 Selections – Tenax, Pendleton, Magical Spirit

 

6.55 Haydock

I’ve backed True Hero a couple of times this season and he is knocking on the door although hasn’t managed to get his head in front yet. I suspect he’s not the most resolute of finishers but travels very well and is definitely capable of winning off this mark. Needs to be on the shortlist.

Vee Man Ten has run a few nice races this season and was robbed last time when he looked the winner 1f out but tied up badly when close to home, with the eventual winner finishing like a rocket. He’s up 3lbs for that but, given how he quickened away from the field that day, I actually think the 3lbs rise isn’t much of an issue and he looks sure to run well.

Celsius has the look of an improver and, although he was beaten last time at short odds off the same mark as here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run better and he also makes the shortlist.

Place 6 Selections – True Hero, Vee Man Ten, Celsius

 

7.25 Haydock

This race is a nightmare for me. A two-year-old novice stakes with some very big stables represented by newcomers taking on horses who have run well on debut. A complete puzzle and you need to use the market to guide you I think.

The two runners with the best form are Anfield Girl and Lola Paige but this form was achieved on soft ground . So with firm ground tonight, there has to be a question mark about whether they can repeat it. Anfield Girl was fourth in a maiden over course and distance and the second has won since, giving the form a little bit of substance.

Lola Paige was second to a hotpot from the Appleby stable first time out and through a line with the fourth that day (Irish Eileen), she should beat Anfield Girl here.

The newcomers from the Fahey, Watson and Johnston stables are all capable of taking a hand in the finish if any of them are fancied but you also have the added complication of the Hannon horse who is sure to come on a tonne for its debut run. I’ll plump for the Watson runner, Gloryana, as the final selection for the shortlist.

Place 6 Selections – Anfield Girm, Lola Paige, Gloryana

 

8.00 Haydock

Things don’t get any easier with a really tricky three-year-old handicap. I can see this being a difficult race and one which could boost the Place 6 dividend.

Warning Fire has been running consistently well and is down another 1lb tonight, the handicapper is definitely giving her a chance. She was a bit unlucky last time when chasing a leader who went clear before getting caught close to home. Was the second best horse that day and I’d expect her to run well.

Rich Approach caught my eye two starts ago when fifth at Thirsk although he ran poorly last time. Again, the handicapper is playing ball, having dropped him another 1lb and, assuming he can repeat his penultimate run, he should run well again.

Olivia R has run well on her last two starts and, like the two above, the handicapper has dropped her 1lb which feels generous to me. There’s a doubt about the ground as she’s been running on soft ground but, assuming she copes with the firmness, I can see her running well.

I found it hard to split Call Him Al and Jem Scuttle but in the end, I thought Call Him Al was slightly more likely to run his race tonight. He finished fourth at Musselburgh off a 3lbs higher mark four starts ago and, although he has disappointed a few times since, I’m not sure he coped with soft ground on two of the starts and ran as if something was amiss at Wetherby.

Place 6 Selections – Warning Fire, Rich Approach, Olivia R, Call Him Al

 

8.30 Haydock

Reputation has a reputation (excuse the pun!) as a sprinter but, last time out, he stepped up to 7f and produced a career best to finish second at Newmarket, finishing very strongly and looking like he stayed every inch of the 7f trip. Steps up another furlong tonight and, although there has to be a question mark about whether he sees out the trip, it’s hard to ignore him from a Place 6 perspective.

The other one that looks solid is Rufus King who is now a very well-handicapped horse and will surely bounce back at some point. He’s a typical type from this stable where he runs frequently and runs himself into form and down to a mark he can win from.

Place 6 Selections – Reputation, Rufus King

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