Syndicate Captain and tipping guru TFA has delivered his judgement on the Boosted Place 6 pool at Musselburgh on Wednesday. He is firmly of the opinion that Amazing Alba is the one to watch in the opening leg.
I’m really sweet on one here and think Amazing Alba may just be a little bit better than the rest. She’s had six starts in handicaps and has dropped from an initial rating of 73 to 61. One stat that jumps out to me is that she hasn’t started as a double-figure price in nine runs, yet hasn’t really run a bad race.
This season, she’s run in some better races than this, finishing behind horses who are much better than this grade and, although she is fairly well exposed compared to a few in this race, I think she can definitely win off a mark of 61, giving weight away to others.
The other one that caught my eye was Brahma Kamal. If he can repeat his seasonal debut effort behind The Defiant, he’ll surely go close today. He finished second to The Defiant and was well clear of the third that day but has run two poor races since. Needs to bounce back but is potentially better than his 45 rating.
Place 6 Selections – Amazing Alba, Brahma Kamal
A tricky little race with only six runners and I think you have to select either Bill Neigh or Ventura Flame on your perm. Bill will do well to win with the 7lbs penalty but I thought he ran very well on debut in a decent race and also ran well at Royal Ascot. I favour Bill Neigh over Ventura Flame.
The other one I like is Bubbly Splash. He ran well on debut behind a couple of nice types and the stable’s juveniles tend to come on a bundle for a run. This race looks easier than his last and he should run well.
Place 6 Selections – Bill Neigh, Bubbly Splash
I’ve narrowed this down to four, although I will let the market guide me when it comes to deciding if the race looks competitive enough to require that many.
Another Lincolnday had over two years off the track before returning this season. First time out, he ran really well, finishing fourth behind a stablemate who has won again since. He was well fancied last time but ran poorly.
It wouldn’t be the first time one has bounced on his second run back from an absence but, watching the race, he didn’t get a clear run and the second place won at the weekend. Expect him to run better today.
The horse that won that race lines up here today. Nearly There won well last time and, considering the second has won since, a 4lbs rise doesn’t look overly harsh and he makes the shortlist too.
Lever Du Soleil is an Irish raider who looks very well handicapped off a mark of 54 considering he is rated 125 over hurdles. Likely to be well supported in the market.
Siyahamba is running very consistently at the moment and, although I’m not sure he can win this one, it’s difficult to exclude him from the shortlist. Two starts back, he was second over course and distance, six lengths clear of the third and runs off a similar mark here.
Place 6 Selections – Another Lincolnday, Nearly There, Lever Du Soleil, Siyahamba
It’s difficult to rule any out in this race. Raselasad looks the most likely to run a race and will hopefully be difficult to keep out of the frame. He’ll try to make all, although one thing I did notice is that there could be plenty of pace on, so he won’t get an easy time up front.
He’s 2lbs lower than on seasonal debut here when second and finished third last time out at Doncaster in a better race than this one. Assuming he doesn’t go too fast, looks a solid bet in here.
Jacob Black is one who will benefit from the probably fast pace and he really loves this course and distance, having won last time here before running well on a few subsequent starts. I can’t say he’s very well handicapped now as he has risen back up the handicap over the last two seasons but I’m sure he can still run well off this mark.
Tribal Warrior is the other one in the race that I think will benefit from the pace. It’s his first run of the season and off a career high mark, so he needs to have improved since last season but is unexposed. The fact that he runs here (won here last season) makes me think he will be trying.
Place 6 Selections – Raselasad, Jacob Black, Tribal Warrior
I was all over Be Bold last time, as he was very unlucky two starts ago at this course over 7f, he then stepped up to a mile on softish ground. I’m not entirely sure he got home if I’m honest but, back on firmer ground, I’ll give him another chance.
I do think he has a preference for soft ground but it’s obviously easier to get the additional furlong on a firmer surface and I think 8f may suit him today.
Rebel State is proving expensive to follow but is definitely capable of winning off this mark. The problem with hold up horses is that they can often look unlucky and they need things to drop right for them. He is no different and the jockey will need to ride a better judged race than he rode a couple of starts ago when second at Ayr but he can definitely win off this mark this season. Should go well.
Forever A Lady is very well-handicapped these days and back at a track she does well at. She was second last season when she last ran here off a mark of 67 in a much better race than this and, if she can repeat that run, she’ll win this.
Place 6 Selections – Be Bold, Rebel State, Forever A Lady
Cliff Bay beat Donnelly’s Rainbow last time out and, if both are in the same form now, they look sure to run well. Both are very well handicapped, have lots of backclass and both will cope with the firmer ground here. I can’t split them.
My Valentino caught my eye as an alternative to the two well fancied runners and is probably the likely value in the race. Was beaten by less than a length two starts ago at this course and, off a 2lbs lower mark today, should run well again I think.
Place 6 Selections – Cliff Bay, Donnelly’s Rainbow, My Valentino