Racing
Ayr betting preview: Volatile Analyst looks well worth backing
Racing expert Steven Dowler returns with a top notch Ayr betting preview as he attempts to overcome the Boosted £5,000 Pick 5. If you agree with his selections, join his Syndicate.
Ayr betting preview
13.40 – Class 5 Maiden Stakes – 6f
The first leg of my Ayr betting preview features MESHAKEL who returned a beaten favourite on debut when third at Haydock, but the form has been boosted since with the first and second from the race running well at Royal Ascot last week. Joe Fanning rides this track well, and any sign of improvement here should see the son of Sharmadal win this.
A BOY NAMED IVY might be the outsider according to the bookmakers, but his connections do have quite a good record at this venue and their runner could shake up the market leaders if ready to roll first time out, especially being the yard’s only runner on today’s card.
Richard Fahey doesn’t have a great record overall here, but INTERNATIONAL DREAM was an expensive yearling and shaped nicely on debut to not be beaten far in seventh. If he improves, I can’t see why he won’t be thereabouts at the finish.
SUMMER PETO can’t be left out here with this race being tricky to solve, and it would be frustrating if we left out one who ended up winning.
Selections: MESHAKEL, A BOY NAMED IVY, INTERNATIONAL DREAM, SUMMER PETO
14.10 – Class 5 Novice Stakes – 6f
This race should be fought out between the two market principals. VOLATILE ANALYST won well on debut over C&D before running an exceptional race to finish fourth in a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood. The winner of that race Golden Horde recently won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot whilst the second and third are good horses in their own right. He’s been handed a lofty rating of 102 on that back of that performance, but that is seriously good form, and he ought to prove more than capable here of defying a penalty.
Selections: VOLATILE ANALYST
14.40 – Class 6 Handicap – 6f
CORTON LASS is a modest performer, but this a poor race in general and she has shown useful form off this mark previously to suggest this could be the time she finally wins a race with course specialist Joe Fanning on her back.
LINCOLN RED is the hot favourite and looked on the way back to form when finishing second last time out. He’s now back on his last winning mark, so a repeat performance here should see him return to winning ways.
EXTRASOLAR losing streak stretches back to a fair way, but he’s feasibly well-handicapped these days being 19lb below his last winning mark, and he’s been running well enough on the AW to suggest he can be in the mix.
Selections: CORTON LASS, LINCOLN RED, EXTRASOLAR
15.10 – Class 5 Handicap – 6f
MR WAGYU will appreciate the lightning quick ground having shown all his best form under those conditions. His handicap mark continues to fall, and he normally contests better races than this. I very much like his chances here with Joe Fanning taking the ride.
BE PROUD appeals as one of the likelier candidates having been in good form for the best part of eight months with strong results on his CV. Danny Tudhope takes the ride, and this could be the day he finally wins on the turf.
OBEE JO is easing down the weights, and has been running to a decent standard in much stronger races for a while. He’s a lightly-raced sort who is still open to more improvement and is expected to be in the thick of the action here.
Selections: MR WAGYU, BE PROUD, OBEE JO
15.40 – Class 3 Handicap – 5f
LORD RIDDIFORD has a massive chance of backing up his Chelmsford success. He returns to the turf off a slightly higher mark but has been competitive previously off this sort of mark in much tougher races (mainly class 2 company). John Quinn has an outstanding record at this venue along with Danny Tudhope’s fine record at the track. The combination of all that has been mentioned makes Lord Riddiford a strong contender for top honours.
TANASOQ looks too big to ignore. He’s a previous C&D winner and would have needed his return to action last time. His handicap mark of 95 makes him well-treated being just 1lb above his last winning mark along with being 1lb lower than when fifth of 26 in the Ayr Gold Cup last season. This race is much easier, and he could easily outrun his odds if back on song.
EEH BAH GUM has the beating of a few of these on previous meetings. He was consistent all the way through last year, placing three times off a mark of 88 in class 2 company, including when fourth in the Epsom Dash. It was clear to see he needed his latest run, and he’s expected to leave that run well behind him now with fitness assured. If he can reproduce his form from last season, I have no doubt he can win this.
Selections: LORD RIDDIFORD, TANASOQ, EEH BAH GUM
16.15 – Listed Fillies’ Stakes – 5f
The feature race of the day comes in the final leg of the Ayr betting preview and I’m siding with Michael Dods who has two runners at the front of the market.
Paul Mulrennan has chosen to stick with QUE AMORO who only just failed to complete a front-running hat-trick in this grade when last seen. That form has worked out particularly well, and we can expect her to improve again this term. Her speed will be an asset in this contest so if she’s ready first-time up she should go close to winning this.
Her stable companion QUEEN’S GIFT improved sharply in the second half of 2019, winning back-to-back events then finishing runner-up in two Listed events behind the likes of Equilateral and Judicial. That form is rock solid, and she reappeared in a Group 3 at Newmarket when finishing fifth. Her fitness will be an advantage here, and she clearly has the class to win this under Callum Rodriguez.
American Lady’s stable do extremely well when sending runners to this track and their filly has a solid enough chance. She was highly tried as a two-year-old, running in Group/Listed races. I liked how she has performed on all three starts this year, especially when fourth last time out. Therefore, she could cause a few problems for the market leaders if translating that form to the UK.
However, the two Michael Dods trained runners we have already touched on are the ones we are sticking with as one of those are most likely to collect the prize.
Selections: QUE AMORO, QUEEN’S GIFT
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