Racing
Newbury betting Preview: Back Epsom Oaks hopeful Cabaletta
One of our resident racing experts Jack Nunn has put together Newbury betting preview, ahead of the Boosted £3,000 Place 6 this afternoon.
Newbury Betting Preview
12:15 – Novice Stakes
A strong looking Novice race to open my Newbury betting preview where John Gosdens Tsar sets the standard with an official rating of 86 after finishing a close 4th in a very strong maiden at Newmarket’s July Course, before opening his account at Newcastle in October.
He looks sure to run a nice race here before going onto better things. However, he has to give 7lbs away to Roger Varian’s Lord Campari, and that might be enough for this 3 year old Kingman Colt to get the better of Tsar.
Lord Campari finished 6th in a Sandown Maiden to Palace Pier on his only start. The form of this maiden has worked out really well, and he can step up on this debut effort to win here.
Verdict: Tsar and Lord Campari
12:45 – Handicap
An ultra-competitive class 5 handicap where a case can be made for a number of these. Madame Tantzy was clearly held in quite high regard having won a novice race and then contesting a Group 3 Guineas trial on her third start. After running creditably in better handicap company she has dropped to a mark of 70, for which she might be able to take advantage of here.
The most in-form of these is Fortune and Glory who has the benefit of a recent run, when winning at Lingfield last week. He has only been raised 3lb for winning that race quite comfortably, and this Course and Distance winner looks sure to run another good race.
Another interesting one in here is the well bred French recruit Yagood. He ran a nice 3rd in a competitive French Handicap on his final start before switching to the Roger Ingram yard. Before that he had also taken a French maiden, and with only 5 starts to his name, he could be an improving well treated horse off a mark of 70 on his British debut.
Verdict: Madame Tantzy, Fortune and Glory, and Yagood
13:15 – Handicap
A similar contest to the previous where, although competitive, a lot of these horses are out of form. It may therefore play to side with 3 of the more in-form horses from both this all-weather season and the previous flat season.
A horse bang in form and who could be well above the handicapper is Singing Sheriff. He started off his all-weather campaign off a mark of 72 and finished on a mark of 86 after only narrowly being beaten in a good class 2 handicap on his penultimate start. He runs here off a turf mark of 70 and if he gets anywhere close to that all-weather form, he will take a lot of beating.
It is not certain he will translate that form to turf and if he fails to do so Isle of Wolves looks sure to run another good race. He was running consistently last summer off a similar mark to today before an unsuccessful jumps campaign. As a 4 year old he still has some improvement in him and looks sure to run another good race.
Another to note is Redgrave for the in-form Joseph Tuite stable. He was running ok without winning last season off a higher mark, and now off a mark of 69 he can be competitive here.
Verdict: Singing Sheriff, Isle of Wolves and Redgrave
13:50 – Handicap
Although only the five runners line up for this 0-95 handicap, it looks very strong for the grade. Morisco brings the best form to the table after a respectable 5th in a solid 7f group 3 at York before going onto comfortably land a novice race at Ayr. He looks the type to make a better 3-year-old and has stamina on his dams side so should appreciate the step up to 1m2f here. He may prove to be quite a bit better than a 93 rated horse.
A solid alternative could be the Mark Johnston-trained Gold Souk. He was very consistent last year winning and finishing second in some similar contests to today. He re-opposes off a similar mark and as the most likely leader in the race, Joe Fanning will be able to dictate the pace which could play into his advantage in this small field.
Verdict: Morisco and Gold Souk
14:25 – Listed Race
This is a very competitive fillies listed race in which it might prove best to stick with the two highest rated horses in the field, Preening and Miss Celestial.
Preening ran some very good races In Group 3 and Listed company last year, most notably, finishing second to Breathtaking Look over 7 furlongs at Doncaster, similar conditions to which she’ll encounter today. She then ran a couple of solid races before taking an all weather listed race in France in December. She has a 3lb penalty for that, but might still prove better than most of these.
My stronger fancy is Sir Mark Prescott’s Miss Celestial who made a brilliant return to action last week with a close fifth in a listed fillies race over 6 furlongs. That race was a lot stronger than today’s and a repeat of that over the 7 furlongs here would be enough to take this contest. She had good form over 7 furlongs last year and this 4-year-old should keep improving.
Verdict: Preening and Miss Celestial
15:00 – Listed Race
A fillies listed race which presents some very promising and unexposed types. It’s very hard to get away from Cabaletta who beat Frankly Darling on her debut at Yarmouth and makes the shortlist in the final leg of our Newbury betting preview.
That form has taken a huge boost with the highly regarded Frankly Darling coming out and winning a Newcastle Maiden by 5 lengths. She now heads the betting for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, as short as 6-4, and as short as 12-1 for the Epsom Oaks. Cabaletta can take this on her way to setting up a tilt at the Epsom Oaks herself.
Verdict: Cabaletta
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