Racing
York Tips: Jawwaal could be the value bet of the day
After a brief hiatus from his last article, The Form Analyst is back to guide you through another Place 6 pool. This time he’s taking on the Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6 at York on Friday and feels very strongly about Jawwaal being the value pick of his York tips.
2.00 York
A 15 runner nursery to kick off the card and races for the Place 6 don’t come more difficult than this. I’ve narrowed it down to a shortlist of 4 selections.
Stone Soldier looks to be improving and was impressive last time out at Chester on soft ground. He is now 5lbs higher in a better class of race but I’m not sure the extra 5lbs would have stopped him last time and, if he copes with the higher class of race, should run well.
Romantic Vision is unproven on soft ground but has won his last two races nicely and, as long as he copes with the softer ground, should run well.
The value bet in the race I suspect is probably the Easterby runner Vintage Times. You never want to read too much into ratings for 2-year-olds in listed races but she appeared to run a career best last time out in a Listed race at Redcar and, assuming this race doesn’t come too soon, may well be ahead of this mark I think.
My final selection is Singe Anglais who has won 3 of his last 4 races, including a couple of handicaps, and although he’ll need to improve again stepped up in class, this is not impossible.
Place 6 Selections – Stone Soldier, Romantic Vision, Vintage Times, Singe Anglais
2.40 York
Last year’s race appears to hold all the clues for this year and I suggest we perm the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 8th placed finishers from last year’s renewal.
I find it really hard to spit Waarif and Gulf of Poets and both have the profile of horses laid out for this race. The difference between them is that Waarif returned to form last time and looks absolutely nailed on to run well. Gulf of Poets, on the other hand, ran poorly last time but it would have needed the run and it just looks to me like Mick will have this one spot on today and could be a decent bet at a price.
Mikmak and Alemsratalyoum aren’t as well handicapped as last year but, in the context of this race, both look solid enough and should run their race.
Place 6 Selections – Waarif, Gulf of Poets, Alemaratalyoum, Mikmak
3.15 York
Abstemious looked very good two starts ago here and, although the gelding disappointed last time out in the Gimcrack, it was clearly a much better race than this and the ground was probably too fast for him that day too. Back on slower ground today, he should bounce back.
Rosa quickened up smartly from the front at Kempton last week and looked pretty special I think. Massive question mark about whether the filly can repeat it on soft ground on turf but I’m always willing to give one like this a go after creating such a favourable impression on debut.
Place 6 Selections – Abstemious, Rosa
3.50 York
Hamish won the Melrose last time out and looks a Group performer in the making. If so, he will win this before going onto better things but is likely to be short enough in the betting and value will lie elsewhere in this race I think.
I do find it interesting that Mick Easterby potentially ruins the handicap mark of Art of Diplomacy by running him from out of the handicap. He’s too shrewd to be doing this unless he thinks he really has a chance off this mark. Could easily open up a massive price but I think he might end up being a decent bet.
The other from that stable, Elysian Flame, is much more obvious and although he needs to improve again off this mark, Mick is a genius with these types and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being better than a handicapper in time.
The other one on the shortlist is one I backed last time at Goodwood when he ran poorly but Future Investment is on a decent enough mark and the break after last time suggests the poor Goodwood run was probably due to an issue and hopefully he can bounce back today.
Place 6 Selections – Hamish, Elysian Flame, Future Investment, Art of Diplomacy
4.20 York
I really like one in this race. Jawwaal looks on a decent mark, ran well a couple of starts ago here and I think the drop back to 5f on this ground might see him finally get his head in front. Tissue prices suggests that he could be a decent double figure price and I’d expect him to get backed.
Moss Gill has been a big improver this season but I’m not sure the handicapper has caught up with him yet. Finished 1st or 2nd for 7 straight races and looks absolutely nailed on to run a race here and must have a good chance of placing again.
Duke Of Firenze loves this course and distance and although it’s hard to argue he is well handicapped these days, he seems to hold his form well and was 7th last year when looking much more regressive. Some form from earlier this season shows he isn’t quite as regressive as he looked and I would not be surprised to see him finishing fast and late to grab a place.
Last but not least, Only Spofing is running very well and has run a couple of nice recent races off this sort of mark in Ireland. It will take a career best to win this but he has ideal conditions and, from a nice draw, will set out to try to make all and should give us a good run for our money.
Place 6 Selections – Jawwaal, Moss Gill, Duke of Firenze, Only Spoofing
4.55 York
One of the easier races on this card and, although a couple of newcomers are well bred and may prove better in time, you have to favour those with experience in this race.
Yoshimi has to give weight away to others but has the best form in the race and, despite needing to improve again to follow up, has the look of a typical improver from this stable and should run well.
Arch Moon chased home a really nice type at Ayr last time and, if he can repeat that run, should go close here. Depending on the price he opens, he may end up being the value bet in the race each-way.
Place 6 Selections – Yoshimi, Arch Moon
