Sandown Tips: Machine Learner could be the bet of the evening
Syndicate Captain The Form Analyst has cast his expert eye over Wednesday’s card at Sandown with a view to tackling the Boosted £10,000 Place 6 pool. Machine learner is his bet of the evening and he believes it could go very well indeed.
Narrowed this down to four, although there is every chance of a decent value bet as I think one may be overlooked in the market. Nordic Flight has been a big price every start so far and appears to have not shown much in 2 handicap starts (went off 20/1 each time) but I think we may see an improved showing here.
On his first time in a handicap, he finished 4th at Newmarket and, although well beaten, it was a messy race where it paid to be ridden prominently. He was held up and finished ok once the race was over as a contest. Last time he was only 8th at Newbury (the 3rd and 6th that day have won since) and he was fairly eye-catching, travelling well and then staying on late. Could be a decent bet at a high double figure price.
I don’t have much between the other 3 on the shortlist. Lunar Deity was 3rd in the race last year (4lbs lower this year) and will appreciate step up in trip after running over 8f recently.
Broad Appeal and Grange Walk both bring the best recent form into the race and both look likely to run their race. I’d just favour Broad Appeal.
Place 6 Selections – Nordic Flight, Lunar Deity, Broad Appeal
A simple race for me. Poets Dance achieved a great deal when 3rd at Nottingham on debut and, if she can repeat that run, she will win this race. She finished 3rd to Flaming Princess (subsequently 7th in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot). The 2nd place went to Al Raya who was 5th in the Queen Mary. The 4th and 6th also won next time out and it will be a surprise if Poets Dance can’t go close here.
Beyond her, it’s a bit of a guess and I will probably perm an unraced horse with Poets Dance but, for the blog, I’m happy to go with Poets Dance as a banker to place.
Place 6 Selection- Poets Dance
This is a tricky race even with 8 runners and 3 places but it will become even more difficult if we see a non-runner, so it’s worth keeping an eye on the place terms.
Waseem Faris won the race last year off a mark of 80 and only 1lb higher this year and I think he has every chance of following up. Needs to bounce back from a poor run last time but will probably be overlooked in the betting as a result. I’d give him another chance here.
Delegate This Lord went off a well-backed 11/4 chance in this race last year but ran poorly. Comes into this race in better form and is off a 4lb lower mark than last year and should go close I think.
Indian Raj has been a little disappointing this season and the market has expected better on a few occasions but, from a nice draw here with Murphy on board, I’d give him another chance. Has hopefully just needed a couple of runs to blow away the cobwebs this season after an 18 month absence and may be ready to peak now.
Place 6 Selections – Waseem Faris, Delegate This Lord, Indian Raj
This race is a nightmare. I couldn’t rule any out definitively and the complete outsider (at the tissue odds at least) Shady McCoy is my first selection. Only a matter of time before he returns to form and is too well-handicapped to ignore here. Ran poorly last time but didn’t get much cover and I just don’t think you can ignore one as well-handicapped as him that will probably be overlooked by the market.
Call Out Loud is working up the handicap after being very well-handicapped on turf compared to his all-weather mark and I still think he looks reasonably well handicapped off a mark of 81 here. Won off a mark of 82 at Newcastle in February this year and therefore he makes the shortlist.
Moraawed looks sure to appreciate the step up to 7f here after being outpaced over 6f last time and I’ve doubt he is still well-handicapped after an earlier win this season.
Finally, Qaysar is slipping down the handicap and this race is a bit of a step down in class compared to some others he has contested this season. Expect he will pop up again at some point soon and, therefore, he makes the shortlist in a tricky race.
Place 6 Selections – Shady McCoy, Call Out Loud, Moraawed, Qaysar
Another nightmare race with 7 runners.
I narrowed it down to 3 in the end and I’d be confident one of them will place. The favourite is likely to be Motawaj, as the only 3-year-old in the field who looks to be improving after winning easily last time out. Will need to have improved again to defy an 8lbs rise but I’m sure he hasn’t hit the ceiling of his ability.
Masked Identity was disappointing on his first two turf starts after showing plenty on the all-weather but returned to form last time at Ascot when a little unlucky not to win in my opinion. If he can perform to the same level of form again here, he should go close.
The final one is an outsider but Dragons Tail is on a very good mark these days and caught my eye last time out, staying on very late to finish a never nearer 8th. He will surely bounce back sooner rather than later and I’d include him in my perm here.
Place 6 Selections – Motowaj, Masked Identity, Dragons Tail
I’m very keen on one in this as Machine Learner is very well-handicapped and looked to have returned to form last time plus has a very good record at Sandown. Putting it all together, assuming he’s a decent each way price, I will be having a decent bet on him.
The other one I like is Emenem who was a couple of places behind Machine Learner last time and there should be little between them here at the revised weights. I would be disappointed if neither of these go close.
Place 6 Selections – Machine Learner, Emenem