Syndicate Captain The Form Analyst has delivered his expert verdict on Thursday’s Sandown card to try and decipher the best plays in the Boosted £10,000 Place 6 pool. He’s particularly strong on Magnetic Charm who has enjoyed an excellent season, finishing as runner-up in a big handicap at Royal Ascot.
The market is your best guide to a race like this with such little form in the book. Without the market to guide me, I’ll suggest a couple for the shortlist based on breeding and connections, although there is one in the race with some experience.
My first preference would be Dubai Paradise who at least has the benefit of a previous run. She was actually disappointing first time out when finishing fourth having been backed into odds on that day. Even so, she will surely improve for the run and, against a field of newcomers, might be able to put that experience to good use.
Of the newcomers, the Frankel filly Queen Daenerys catches my eye from the Roger Varian stable with Ryan Moore riding. She will no doubt improve for the run and be better over a longer distance but the booking of Moore suggests that she may be ready for her debut.
Place 6 Selections – Dubai Paradise, Queen Daenerys
Shoot To Kill is the only one in the field with any experience but he ran really well on debut when fourth of 15 at Doncaster and, although he meets some very well-bred individuals in this race, he may just have an edge on the more precocious types due to the fact that he has had a run. Long-term, he won’t end up being as good as a few here I think.
Given that there are only seven runners, I want to perm another couple of selections due to the difficult nature of the race.
Man Of Promise holds an entry in the Gimcrack at York next month and, to justify a Group 2 entry, he is going to have to go close here. Given the 2-year-old talent that the stable has this year, the fact that he is one of only four entries from the stable in the Gimcrack is a good pointer and I expect him to run well.
Finally, the booking of Ryan Moore catches my eye again on the Haggas-trained runner Surf Dancer. The fact that he holds an entry in the Gimcrack too is probably even more eye-catching as the trainer is usually very good at placing his horses and doesn’t over-face them early in their career. This could be a good one from the stable.
Place 6 Selections – Shoot To Kill, Man Of Promise, Surf Dancer
Knight Crusader’s win last win was franked on Wednesday evening when the horses he beat last time (Machine Learner & Emenem) finished first and third at Sandown. He has been raised 3lbs for that success and, although this is clearly a tougher race, I really like his profile as he looks a slowly improving sort and I don’t think he has stopped improving.
An obvious alternative is the Stoute-runner Crystal King who improved for the step up in trip last time when he was slightly unlucky to not win and, up another 2lbs, looks a really solid runner in the context of this race and should go well.
Place 6 Selections – Knight Crusader, Crystal King
Magnetic Charm is likely to be a very warm order for this race but I honestly can’t find many flaws in her form this season. She won a listed race first time out York and then finished runner up in a big handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 105. The last run shows she is probably better than listed class and it will take a good one to beat her.
Main Edition steps down in class after contesting the Nell Gywn on debut this season and then coming back off a break last time to finish last in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. It’s a big difference between a Group 1 at Ascot to today’s race and, although she clearly has a few questions to answer, she does look the one most likely to trouble the favourite.
Place 6 Selections – Magnetic Charm, Main Edition
There are two very progressive geldings in this race and I’ll be surprised if one of the two don’t take a hand in the finish. Sextant has only been raised 1lb for winning at Windsor last time and I’m sure the connections were fairly happy with the handicapper’s view of that performance. Speed Company who was just behind Sextant ran OK the other day and I’ll be surprised if Sextant doesn’t end up rated above 100 at some point.
Anythingtoday beat Speed Company last time and is handicapped very closely with Sextant through the form lines with Speed Company. He is slightly more exposed than Sextant, although is clearly improving again having won his last two races, and I think it will be close between the two of them here.
Place 6 Selections – Sextant, Anythingtoday
A tricky sprint to end the card and, with 15 runners, I think you need to perm a few and hope for the best!
Going through the field, I didn’t think it was quite as competitive as the numbers suggested and I’ll be disappointed if one of the the four on my shortlist don’t place.
Encore D’or didn’t achieve much last time out when second in a two horse race but I’m actually amazed he has been dropped 2lbs. I know you can’t go crazy with literal form reading in a two runner race but he really had little chance at the weights last time and I thought he ran above expectations to finish second. Should go well here.
Arecibo won two starts ago and was then second last time out under a 5lbs penalty. He is actually now 3lbs lower than last time as the handicapper has only raised him 2lbs for the win and he should go well again.
Daschas won well last time out, although will need a career best under a 5lbs penalty, he does look to be in the form of his life at the moment and is probably capable of running well here.
Last, but not least, Only Spoofing steps up in class after two recent wins but does look like he is improving and I was quite taken by how he won last time. Will need another step forward here but would not surprise me if he went close.
Place 6 Selections – Encore D’or, Arecibo, Daschas, Only Spoofing