Racing
Newmarket Tips: Champagne Champ likely to fizz
Racing expert and Syndicate Captain TFA returns to try and take on the Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6 at Newmarket on Friday. He cites Champagne Champ as his nap of the meeting and is very hopeful of plotting his way through the pool.
12.00 Newmarket
Looks a fairly straightforward race on paper with the two obvious standout picks coming from the powerful stables of O’Brien and Varian and it will be a big surprise if one of these two don’t place here.
Keats was only 4th on debut but it at least showed it handles heavy ground and the fact connections bring it across from Ireland for a novice race is a pretty good hint that they want this to win a race before the end of the season. Should go close.
Naizagai was also 4th on debut in a Yarmouth maiden but that too showed it can handle soft ground and with normal improvement from first run to second run, this should go close and will probably give Keats a race.
Place 6 Selections – Keats, Naizagai
12.30 Newmarket
This is definitely a more difficult race than the opener with less form to go on and some very big stables represented with well bred newcomers. I usually favour proven form against debutantes and therefore, I’ll stick with Blue Skyline as my first selection.
Stepped up on his debut effort when 3rd last time at Newmarket and although that wasn’t the strongest race on paper, the advantage with this one is we know it copes with the ground and although it is vulnerable to a couple of the newcomers, they’ll all need to be very smart to keep this one out of the places.
Market is likely to be the best guide to the newcomers but without this to guide me, I’ll plump for the well bred Tuscan Gaze from the John Gosden stable. By Gallileo out of Crystal Gaze, likely to need further in time and this 2020 derby entry may be forward enough on debut to run well here.
If the betting suggested the Hannon pair were fancied, I would probably be inclined to throw one of these two into the perm but I’ll stick with the two I’ve mentioned for the blog perm.
Place 6 Selections – Blue Skyline, Tuscan Gaze
1.05 Newmarket
This is a nightmare race with 7 runners and only 2 places up for grabs. The top 3 in the racecard probably have the best form in the book and will be popular in the betting but none of the 3 have raced on soft ground and therefore, I automatically get drawn to Raasel from the Marcus Tregoning stable who won first time out on soft ground at Bath.
On the face of it, it has beaten an 89 rated animal fairly easily who had the benefit of 4 previous runs and if you take this form literally, it was a very good performance. Steps up to 6f and although it needs to improve again, hard to think it won’t improve and could be a decent bet in here.
I think you are forced to perm one of the top 3 in the racecard and I’ll go with Smokey Bear. Gives weight away here and probably has a bit to find on official ratings but looks to be improving and I think it has achieved more than the other two at the top of the racecard.
Final selection is Last Surprise who gets the fillies allowance in here and although there is a doubt about the ground for this one, we at least know it is fit and well and it wouldn’t need to improve to go close here.
Place 6 Selections – Raasel, Smokey Bear, Last Surprise
1.40 Newmarket
The 4th 2 year old race on the card and another tricky race although at least there is more form to go on here. Hard to not be drawn to the O’Brien runner with Silvestre De Sousa on board and Precious Moments looks fairy solid in here.
Finally got her head in front last time in a maiden on soft ground but at least we now know she handles conditions. Has spent the whole season competing in Group races after finishing 3rd in a maiden and this is a step down in class compared to some of her recent assignments.
Divine Spirit and Orlaith are both similar in the sense they are rated 99 and 101, are proven Listed Class performers but are vulnerable to anything that is unexposed in a field such as this. However, they have achieved more than most in this race and as long as they run to form, they both have a chance of placing I think.
Place 6 Selections – Precious Moments, Divine Spirit, Orlaith
2.15 Newmarket
Regular Income is one I backed last time out when it was just touched off at Windsor and although this is a better race than last time, it runs off the same mark, Jimmy Quinn is back on board and with a better time ride from the back, should go close here I think at a decent price.
Majestic Dawn followed up a 5th place finish in the Cambridgeshire with a cosy win last time out at Nottingham off a 5lbs lower mark than today and I’m sure this is still ahead of the handicapper. The likely winner of this race I think.
Alternative Fact also ran well in the Cambridgshire and on revised terms, it should get much closer to Majestic Dawn today and could be a value bet depending on the price.
Clear angles with all 3 of these horses I think and will be surprised if one of the 3 doesn’t win here or go close.
Place 6 Selections – Regular Income, Majestic Dawn, Alternative Fact
2.50 Newmarket
Champagne Champ jumps off the page here. Clearly had some issues this season but will appreciate the return to softer ground today and assuming it comes on for the last run (first for 5 months), it should go close here.
Fun Mac returned to form last time and although it carries a 4lb penalty, it remains very well handicapped as it has plenty of backclass and if in the same form as last time, will surely go close here on ground it relishes.
Place 6 Selections – Champagne Champ, Fun Mac
