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Manchester City’s season depends on Champions League success

Even as his Manchester City team dropped points to Nottingham Forest, allowing Arsenal to take control of the Premier League title race once again, Pep Guardiola could have been forgiven for having other things on his mind. After all, this week marks the return of the Champions League for the English champions.

While this season has been a slog for City in the Premier League, where they have dropped points in five of their last 11 fixtures, Guardiola’s side is still unbeaten in the Champions League and that is where the success or failure of their 2022/23 campaign will be determined.

Manchester City have been the Premier League’s dominant force over the last five years, winning four titles and setting a new standard at the top of English football. However, Guardiola was brought to the Etihad Stadium to translate domestic dominance into continental success and that’s where City have fallen short.

Last season, the general consensus was that Manchester City lacked the cutting edge in front of goal to go the distance in the Champions League. They were knocked out by a Real Madrid team that had Karim Benzema to show them how to deliver in and around the box when it mattered most.

This surely informed City’s decision to sign Erling Haaland last summer with the Norwegian arguably the most gifted goal-scorer of his generation. While questions have been asked of Haaland’s ability in possession play, he has scored 32 times for his new team this season. Guardiola finally has the centre forward so many said he needed.

There are no more excuses for Manchester City to fall back on if they don’t win the Champions League this season. Their squad is currently the deepest in European football, even after the surprise decision to loan Joao Cancelo to Bayern Munich. Kevin de Bruyne is at the peak of his powers. Guardiola is meant to be one of the best managers of all-time.

What’s more, this season’s Champions League field is weaker than it has been in recent times. Last season’s finalists Liverpool and Real Madrid have both suffered drastic drop-offs in form while Barcelona aren’t even in the competition after dropping into the Europa League. Neither are Premier League table-toppers Arsenal, who didn’t qualify.

Paris Saint-Germain have the individual talent to be Champions League contenders, but things are once again falling apart for the French champions with dressing room tension and reports concerning Neymar’s active social life derailing them. Even Bayern Munich have had their problems in the Bundesliga this season, dropping points in four of the five league games they have played in 2023.

Italy could be where Manchester City’s biggest Champions League challengers emerge from with Napoli enjoying a sensational season to this point. Luciano Spalletti’s team are currently 15 points clear at the top of Serie A and won five out of six Champions League group stage games before the World Cup break. Nobody has scored more goals in Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues than Napoli.

Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have also forged one of the most dangerous attacking partnerships in European football. It seems inevitable that both players will leave Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, potentially for the Premier League, in the future, but for now they are driving Napoli towards history.

City have spent years (and hundreds of millions) to get to this stage. They might be chasing Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table, but their Champions League candidacy has arguably never been stronger. This could be Manchester City’s season and if it isn’t, an explanation will be difficult to find.

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