Sport
Bundesliga Betting Preview: Shock on the cards at Dortmund?
We’ve done well in the Bundesliga Pick 8 pools recently. After nailing eight out of eight in the first week back, we got five the week after and suffered a cruel near miss last weekend with seven correct legs. I’m hoping to go all the way again in this week’s Bundesliga betting preview.
The offending leg which cost us was Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt. It was a bitter blow as we’d backed the home side and the draw and, 1-1 with five minutes left, Frankfurt nicked a late winner. To add insult to injury, Frankfurt then had a player sent off and finished the game with ten men.
Unfortunately as it was one of the Saturday 14:30 fixtures, it deprived us of any decent Cash Out offers. Hopefully we can go one better again this week so we don’t need them.
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Freiburg vs. Borussia Monchengladbach
Friday, 19:30
Two sides in the top half of the table and with European ambitions. Monchengladbach currently sit in fourth place while Freiburg are eighth. However, while only four places separate them, Freiburg are 18 points behind in the league table so there is a class difference here.
Freiburg have failed to win in four matches since returning to action, drawing and losing two apiece. Interestingly, both draws came in away fixtures while the defeats came at home. Monchengladbach have enjoyed significantly more success, with two wins, a draw and a defeat from their matches. The win included a 4-1 hammering of Union Berlin last weekend.
I can’t lie, I really fancy the away side here. However, Freiburg aren’t to be underestimated despite their wretched form and, because I couldn’t bear to go out in the first leg, I’ll include the draw as well.
Verdict: Draw & Borussia Monchengladbach
Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
Bayern are heavy favourites for this one, obviously. They’re heavy favourites for every Bundesliga game they play. Their favouritism is justified though as they are sitting pretty at the top of the table, having won eight consecutive matches and being unbeaten in 15 with just a single draw in that spell.
The Bavarians score heavily and concede few, however they remain far more dangerous at the Allianz Arena than away from home. They have won their two home games since the restart by an aggregate of 10-2, by comparison their away games have yielded a combined 3-0 scoreline.
They also meet stern opposition in Leverkusen who have won three of their four matches since returning, the single outlier being a heavy defeat at home to Wolfsburg.
Clearly Bayern are very likely to win and that’s where 95% of units will go. However, they won’t win every game between now and the end of the season (probably) and this is one of the better chances of an upset. I’ll take the draw as well as Bayern, keeping the faint hope that they have an off day which could see the pool decimated.
Verdict: Draw & Bayern Munich
Dusseldorf vs. Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
Dusseldorf were ticking along nicely in their bid to escape relegation and hadn’t lost in three games until they felt the wrath of Bayern last week and were thumped 5-0. They remain a point from safety but how will that heavy defeat have affected their confidence?
Confidence won’t be an issue for Hoffenheim who have won back-to-back matches against Koln and Mainz, after a drab goalless draw with Paderborn. Four points clear of Freiburg, if they continue their good form they look likely to claim a Europa League spot next season.
Hoffenheim are something of a flat track bully and have only lost one of their last seven matches against sides currently in the bottom half, winning five of them. You’d expect them to beat Dusseldorf but, given the home side’s own decent form, I’ll once again perm the draw.
Verdict: Hoffenheim & Draw
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
Frankfurt screwed me over when I opposed them in the Pick 8 last week and I won’t make that mistake again here. Currently sitting 12th in the table, their position possibly belies their ability, or at least so it has looked since the season returned.
They impressively beat Wolfsburg last week while drawing with Freiburg the week before, both sides are above them in the table. Previous to that Bayern ran them over 5-2 but it was a scoreline that didn’t reflect the pressure and fear they inflicted on the German giants after coming from 3-0 down to make it 3-2 in a matter of minutes.
With two draws and two losses in their last four, Mainz have been bang average and I can see them falling below Dusseldorf into the relegation places before long. They’ve done nothing to impress me recently and, although that is clearly tempting fate to turn them into world-beaters here, I’ll take the home win.
Verdict: Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund vs. Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
To yield a huge return in a pool, you need at least one shock result that decimates the opposition units and this is the match I have my eye on this week.
I’ll begin by stating that I am a huge fan of the way Dortmund play and have thoroughly enjoyed watching them in recent weeks. It’s a real shame they lost to Bayern as the reverse result could have engineered a thrilling conclusion to the title race.
Dortmund battered basement boys Paderborn 6-1 last weekend, including a hat-trick from Jadon Sancho. However, head coach Lucien Favre will have been deeply concerned to see Erling Haaland hobble off with an injury that will keep him out of this game. They are still loaded with attacking potential, as Sancho’s hat-trick proves’, but will undeniably be hampered by the loss of their attacking focal point.
It comes at just the wrong time as they encounter a Hertha side who have been hugely impressive in recent weeks. Unbeaten since the restart, they’ve won three and drawn one, with the stalemate coming in an away clash against Dortmund’s nearest rivals RB Leipzig.
Hertha are a club on the up and are cash rich after a big money takeover, spending heavily in recent transfer windows. They shouldn’t be underestimated and, with Haaland missing, could sneak a result. I’ll cover all three eventualities and hope that Hertha can win it.
Verdict: Borussia Dortmund & Draw & Hertha Belin
Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg
Sunday, 12:30
German giants Werder Bremen aren’t taking the threat of relegation lightly and have clawed their way towards safety in the last month. They are just three points from that mark with a game in hand which will be played tonight (Wednesday) against Frankfurt.
Regardless of the result of that game, they’ve proved they can still mix it with the big boys recently, beating Schalke (10th), Freiburg (8th) and drawing with Monchengladbach (4th). Wolfsburg will be another tough test, although the visitors are in patchy form themselves.
After playing so many games in quick succession, fatigue could start to become a factor for these sides soon and a midweek game followed by the early Sunday match won’t help Werder. However, because of Wolfsburg’s recent inconsistencies I don’t fully trust them to do the job.
Verdict: Draw & Wolfsburg
Union Berlin vs. Schalke
Sunday, 14:30
Now we enter the money legs and I’ve used up all my perms to (hopefully) keep my ticket alive, so will need to be decisive from here on out. That’s not made any easier by the fact that this pair have been wretched since returning, earning a point between them as Union scraped a draw against the equally unimpressive Mainz.
Union lost their other three games by scorelines of 2-0, 4-0 and 4-1 whilst Schalke have also been embarrassed, losing 4-0, 3-0, 2-1 and 1-0. Admittedly both sides have faced stern opposition.
Three goals and a single point between them in eight fixtures screams a lack of form and confidence and, although either side could take this one by the scruff of the neck, I’ll take a chance on a nervy 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Verdict: Draw
Augsburg vs. FC Koln
Sunday, 17:00
Another nightmare leg to finish and I’d hope to have had an opportunity to Cash Out by now.
Augsburg beat Schalke a couple of weeks ago before drawing with Paderborn, however they lost their other two fixtures against Hertha and Wolfsburg which, on the face of it, aren’t disastrous results.
Koln have been in some thrilling encounters for the neutral observer. First they were in back-to-back 2-2 draws against Mainz and Dusseldorf, each of which included a two goal comeback. Next they lost 3-1 to Hoffenheim with each side having a man sent off. Finally went down 4-2 to RB Leipzig last week in a six-goal thriller.
Although Koln can clearly score, I’m always more fearful of defensive vulnerability than I am impressed with attacking flair and Augsburg could punish that deficiency here. In what could be a high scoring encounter, I’ll take Augsburg for the three points.
Verdict: Augsburg
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