Sport

Premier League survival has never been harder

Last weekend, Ipswich Town secured a precious point at Aston Villa to boost their bid to stave off Premier League relegation. Given the heights their hosts are aiming for and their Champions League pedigree, it was undoubtedly an impressive result. Yet, looking at the table, it hasn’t been a great help. Kieran McKenna’s side, alongside Leicester City and Southampton, the two other newly-promoted sides from last season, are in the bottom three, almost in a league of their own.

Were it not for Wolves, who sit 17th and just two points better off on 19, they would be. Their presence at least allows Ipswich and Leicester hope that they may avoid an immediate return to the Championship. Southampton, sitting on nine points, are surely too far gone; avoiding the humiliation of breaking Derby County’s all-time low of 11 should be their main focus.

West Ham, in 16th , are 10 points clear of trouble; Everton, who were in direct competition a matter of weeks ago, have surged to almost guaranteed safety since David Moyes returned to the club as manager. While it seems natural for those clubs reaching the top flight to face the prospect of going straight back down again, this situation is quite concerning for English football as a whole, and it is gradually reaching the point of no return.

The gap between the Premier League and Championship has never been bigger. It used to be that clubs could come up and have a good go at challenging in the top half or even qualify for Europe. Over two decades ago, that is exactly what Ipswich did under George Burley; Wigan Athletic, Reading and, as recently as in 2020-21, Leeds United, also impressed initially.

The points total needed to guarantee survival has always been mythically set at 40; only one team in Premier League history, West Ham in 2003 on 42, has ever gone down with a greater total. In most recent seasons, 35 has been more than enough. Last year, when the league shaped up eerily similar to this season with Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town all coming up and immediately going down again, 27 points would have been enough. Nottingham Forest survived on 32, despite suffering a points deduction after breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules, and Brentford were seven points better off in 16th .

Almost an identical scenario should set alarm bells ringing at the disparity. Is this the new normal? It may just be a coincidence, but that seems unlikely. The gap has been growing for some time; between 2018 and 2022, Norwich City and Fulham never met in the league because they kept swapping places. The latter’s development into a mainstay since could offer some hope, but with Sheffield United and Burnley looking like they could immediately return again, there must be concern that this cycle will only become more viscous.

There are some seriously harsh truths to be accepted here. Leicester and Southampton were both once renowned for their recruitment and approach, reaching European football at their peak; the Foxes, after that stunning Premier League title win in 2016, built a team capable of competing regularly, with successive fifth placed finishes and an FA Cup win just two years before relegation. One season out of the top flight and suddenly they can barely lay a glove on anyone. Ipswich did what everyone says new clubs need to do to survive: spent over £100m and signed a top striker in Liam Delap. It hasn’t helped them bridge the gap.

Delap is said to be a target for Chelsea and Manchester United in the summer. He has scored 10 Premier League goals already this term, including in a win over the Blues and that draw at Villa Park. Yet, Ipswich still look miles off the pace set by the rest of the league.

The biggest concern is that Forest’s survival may show that risking a points deduction for long-term prosperity may not only be worth it, but the desired route. Given the lowering required tally every year, a deduction may not be fatal; Forest have since gone on to impress and become genuine Champions League contenders with smart, bold signings. Although they are setting an extreme example, the idea that you can survive the initially rocky period and thrive even with a breach of the rules is damning.

Because unfortunately, the other evidence that more teams are bouncing between divisions and the established order not having to work too hard to survive is very disconcerting. Questions would need to be asked about the point of promotion if it no longer offers a realistic foundation for long-term success.