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Increase in reactive sackings in the Premier League

Right now, we are probably watching the most intense battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League in years. After the international break, the run-in will begin, with just four points separating the bottom nine teams.

Perhaps, then, it is no surprise that six of those teams have changed their managers. Crystal Palace are, on paper at least, in the best position, currently sitting 12th, but they are the most recent team to bite the bullet and sack their coach. Patrick Vieira was let go after the Eagles failed to win any of the last 12 games under his stewardship, while also becoming the first team since records began to go three games without a shot on target. In truth, although it saddened a lot of people, there weren’t too many who argued Vieira’s case. The controversy has arisen from their choice of replacement, with Roy Hodgson, the man who left to retire in 2021 after four years at Selhurst Park, returning for a second spell.

It isn’t that Hodgson isn’t well-liked by Crystal  Palace fans, or that the consensus is they’ll go down with him in charge. The fact is, it reflects poorly on club management about the long-term visions. Re-hiring a man it was quite clear needed to be moved on a couple of years ago, who also failed to make an impact and keep Watford up last season, shows regression and a lack of commitment to their new, progressive approach. Hodgson is now the record holder for the top three oldest managers in a single Premier League season, returning again at 75.

There are two particularly curious points to be made about this decision. Firstly, as stated above, Palace’s issue has been scoring goals this season; they’ve found the net just 22 times this season, the joint-fewest in the league. But they’ve conceded fewer than every side below them with the exception of 18th-placed West Ham. Hodgson is better suited to shoring up a team defensively, but on the evidence of this season, that is not what Palace’s main problem.

It is also worth examining how Palace have previously tried and failed to reinvent themselves. Since they returned to the Premier League in 2013, they have been a counter-attacking side, usually relying on the pace of Wilfried Zaha except for the spell after he departed for Manchester United as they were promoted. Alan Pardew made this style even more prevalent in 2015 when he arrived, and it was carried on by Sam Allardyce afterwards.

Clubs like Palace find themselves in an awkward situation with the way the Premier League is these days. The top sides have so much money that challenging them is soon unsustainable because of the cost, so the ceiling soon becomes apparent. There are the cups – Pardew and Vieira have both reached Wembley in the form of FA Cup finals and semi finals – but the main controllable is the style of play.

It is a common sight to see clubs change their philosophy, but that can go one of two ways, as reflected by two of Palace’s rivals. Charlton attempted poorly to move on from Alan Curbishley and subsequently fell through the divisions in the mid-2000s, while Brighton have successfully grown as a club with an identity. It just takes time and patience.

After Allardyce, Palace attempted such a change, hiring Frank de Boer, the Dutchman who had won four Eredivisie titles with Ajax before a disappointing spell with Inter. He was known for a progressive, passing game; the complete opposite to what Allardyce was leaving behind. He needed backing in order to even give himself a chance of succeeding, but he was given just four games, the shortest permanent tenure in Premier League history, before Hodgson arrived to steady the ship and revert everything to type.

Vieira was given more time, but the same point stands. Palace have panicked and returned to what they know, both in terms of system and personnel. There were difficulties for Vieira, but a bolder appointment of a similar ilk would have at least kept them on track for what they say they want. But they have gone back to Hodgson and lost a lot of that progress, only they clearly didn’t know they wanted to go that way when making the decision to sack Vieira.

Also worth noting is the squad has progressed a lot since Hodgson was last at the club. Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are examples of what they were shooting for. What next for them? There is no obvious way forward and that is the issue.

But it isn’t just Palace who have fallen into that trap. Leeds sacked Jesse Marsch and stumbled into appointing Javi Gracia after a string of rejections, while Southampton and Bournemouth have both resorted to promoting from within after a lot of speculation. Only Everton and Wolves, hiring long-term targets Sean Dyche and Julen Lopetegui respectively, seem to have found a plan and stuck to it.

Even Tottenham, who parted with Antonio Conte at the weekend, are waiting until the summer to make their next move. Planning is an issue across the division, it seems.

The Premier League bottom half is on a knife edge, and teams are panicking. But those who survive often do so by sticking with a philosophy and seeing it through; it seems almost everybody forgot that memo this season.

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