Syndicate Captain The Form Analyst gives us his expertise once again, this time taking on the Best Dividend Guananteed Place 6 at Hamilton. He reckons that Greengage is one to watch out for, with it potentially his best bet of the meeting.
A tricky little race to open the card and all five runners have shown enough to suggest that they can pick up a race of this type in the future. The two with the strongest form so far appear to be Mia Diva and One Bite.
Mia Diva was fifth on debut, with the first and second that day having placed in Listed company. Second time out, Mia Diva travelled well before winning at Catterick and should put up a bold show here.
One Bite was fourth last time out and the first three home have all run well again since. Assuming that was no fluke, he should come on again for that run and be competitive here
Place 6 Selections – Mia Diva, One Bite
Interesting to see the betting for this race but I’ve narrowed it down to four horses and will perm two or three I suspect.
The best value in the race is likely to be Super Florence. She’s run poorly in her last two over 7f but isn’t a 7f horse. What she did show though is blistering early pace and, dropping down to 5f here, she interests me.
The fact that she is drawn high and is a front runner is an angle I like at Hamilton. Sometimes if they come up against the rail, front runners can be difficult to peg back.
The second horse on the shortlist is Classic Pursuit. Bounced back to form last time at Beverley and if he is anywhere near his best, he’ll go close here. Was competitive last summer off marks of 80+, so running off 64 down in grade, he has to be feared.
Arnold and Bronze Beau are both likely to be well-fancied, solid and likely to run well. Arnold is up 3lbs after finishing a close second last time and, for win purposes, this makes him vulnerable. Has never won off a mark this high before.
Bronze Beau is very well-handicapped and has a great course record here. Bounced back to form last time at Yarmouth and given the record it has here, I would be surprised if he doesn’t repeat the run.
Place 6 Selections – Super Florence, Classic Pursuit, Arnold, Bronze Beau
A tricky seven runner handicap although, going through them, all of the older horses have something to prove. Ghalib wants softer ground, Tough Remedy looks like an AW horse, Kalagia may need the run (stable in amazing form, so less of a negative) and Restive is running outside his usual class of race.
This leaves the trio of three-year-olds and I’ll be surprised if one of them can’t place. The slight preference would be for Harvey Dent over Loch Ness Monster, with Kuwait Station my third selection.
Place 6 Selections – Harvey Dent, Loch Ness Monster, Kuwait Station
Two horses jumped off the page in this race and both look to be ahead of the handicapper. Greengage was a bit unfortunate last time to be beaten I thought and was very well backed. She was punted the first time for this stable too and I expect has a bit in hand of her mark.
The fly in the ointment though is Bellepower, as she also looks very well-handicapped today and it will be a bit of a surprise to me if one of the two don’t at least place in this race. If Greengage is a backable price EW, she would be my bet of the meeting.
Place 6 Selections – Greengage, Bellepower
Lever Du Soleil coped with the step up in class last time without breaking sweat and, if in the same form tonight, it’s hard to see him not winning this. At some point though, so many quick races will take its toll and he meets a couple here who are capable of winning off this mark.
Jabaar and Diodorus are likely to be capable of giving the favourite a race if he runs a little below form compared to previous starts. My personal preference on a Place 6 is to try to get the favourite beaten when only one place is available, so I’ll perm these three.
Place 6 Selections – Lever Du Soleil, Jabaar, Diodorus
It will be a major surprise if New Arrangement or December Sound don’t place here. December Sound has finished runner-up a couple of times to John Gosden horses and needs this run for a handicap mark. I don’t like the jockey booking as it is just their third ever ride and, for that reason, if forced to select one, I would plump for New Arrangement.
He was second on debut, looking very green and the easy winner subsequently ran at Royal Ascot and is rated 88. New Arrangement is sure to on a bundle for that run and assuming he does, he’ll take a fair bit of beating I suspect.
Place 6 Selections – December Sound, New Arrangement