Sport

Why Bruno’s Future Could Define Newcastle’s Project

After finishing 12th in the Premier League last season, Newcastle United were always going to face difficulty this summer.

The club’s decision to stick with manager Eddie Howe has, at best, split the fanbase. Critics believe he should pay for such a disappointing season and mistakes made in terms of tactics, substitutions and playing identity. Newcastle dropped a league-high 27 points from winning positions while collecting only three after conceding first.

Howe’s supporters, and there are still plenty, believe performances dipped as a result of mitigating factors like the enforced sale of star striker Alexander Isak, the departure of both CEO Darren Eales and Sporting Director Paul Mitchell and the impact of Champions League football on the squad’s workload. Added to the success of two Champions League qualifications and a trophy since Howe arrived in 2021, there is strong belief that he deserves time to turn things around.

The truth is, those three issues caused undoubted problems, but in this writer’s opinion, an excuse culture has developed at St James’ Park in recent times. Mistakes have been made and covered up, at times, by such defences. European football can never be blamed for poor performance if, as they are on record stating, the club wants to be among the world’s elite by the year 2030.

In the absence of the aforementioned boardroom structure, Howe was given a bigger role in last summer’s recruitment, when north of £100m was spent on two struggling signings, Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa. He shouldn’t be shielded from blame for that.

With David Hopkinson replacing Eales and Ross Wilson in place of Mitchell, Newcastle were confident of a much smoother summer window. But with no European football and a settlement in place for breaching UEFA’s financial rules, sales were always on the horizon. While a repeat of the Isak saga was being planned against, top players like Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali wanted to leave. Newcastle accommodated these pleas and cashed in for a combined £170m, with a plan to sign younger, unproven talent to kickstart their drive to come a success over the next four years.

But then Arsenal came in for Bruno Guimaraes, a deal not in the offing and one Newcastle can scarcely afford to do. The club captain, fan favourite and heartbeat of the team is vital for maintaining momentum going forward. Isak’s sale was a blow, Tonali and Gordon, it was thought could be replaced, but Guimaraes is worth so much more than any potential transfer fee. Without him, it is no exaggeration to say the entire Saudi Arabian-backed project, which for nearly five years has turbocharged Newcastle into Premier League and European relevance, would be called into question.

From his perspective, though, after seeing the club cherry-picked of their top talent and those players leave for more immediate opportunities to win trophies and potentially double their wages, it isn’t a surprise to note Guimaraes wants to join Arsenal.

When he arrived in January 2022, he did so while the Gunners were interested. Mikel Arteta has been a driving force in that interest for years, but he moved to Newcastle when they were in the relegation zone because of the ambitious dream he was sold. While recent events have shown the Magpies have a very specific place in the ‘food chain’, Guimaraes didn’t arrive seeing them as a stepping stone, he was pitched as the captain of a rocket ship.

But, as mentioned above, things haven’t quite gone to plan for reasons both in and out of Newcastle’s control. Now at a crossroads, there is a new, more sustainable plan in place. Once again, they want Guimaraes to spearhead it, but at the age of 28 going on 29 in November, he doesn’t have time to see that through.

No Newcastle fan can truly blame the Brazilian for wanting to better himself. He has the talent to earn and win much more than he will if he remains at St James’ Park. Having sold three huge players in the last year already, the club is in no need to recoup more financially, and will face serious backlash from fans and an uphill battle to compete should he leave.

Arsenal, rightly, look at the situation and see his age and lack of resale value and that caps what they are willing to spend to get the deal done. It also creates a gap in valuation that could be insurmountable. Newcastle want similar to the £100m they are set to receive for Tonali if they are to even consider a sale, which they will only do because of lingering fears of an Isak repeat.

For Arsenal’s part, there are briefings of a £70m offer after two verbal bids were made through intermediaries. No official contact has yet been made from the clubs, while reports suggest the players’ camp have already agreed personal terms. It is very reminiscent of the approach Liverpool took with Isak last year; for things to really ramp up, Guimaraes has to follow the striker’s lead and go on strike. Expected back in training next Friday, there is no suggestion yet he will do that.

Newcastle are vulnerable. Other than using the mutual love between player and club, there is little they can say to convince him they are where he should be next season. He also has a contract for two more years with a unilateral option for a third on the club’s side, so Newcastle’s hand is strong.

Ultimately, the outcome of this resolves around two potential moves. Either Arsenal enter real conversations over a deal at a rate higher than they are willing to pay or Guimaraes attempts to push harder on his return from holiday. Neither are guaranteed.

One critical difference between this situation is Isak forced Newcastle’s hand because it was clear Liverpool would do everything in their power to sign him. Arsenal keep suggesting they can and will move on. Right now, there is a sense that anything is still possible.

It is the last thing Newcastle need, though.