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Thirsk Tips: Princess Palliser represents Place value in a tricky card

  • TFA

Syndicate Captain TFA returns to gives his expert analysis. This time he is tackling the £10,000 Boosted Place 6 pool at Thirsk where he reckon Princess Palliser is one who could go well.

1.50 Thirsk

Looks a straightforward race and I couldn’t really find any chinks in the armour of the likely favourite, Ebony Adams. Looked to be given a decent mark after 3 promising runs and so it proved as she won well on handicap debut. Up 4lbs but this race looks no better than the last, so should run well.

The alternative suggestion, and one I may  back if I could get a decent price, is Callipygian. I think she is also on a decent mark based on a few form lines and, although she was only 5th last time, the 2nd and 3rd then won next time out and, down 2lbs, as long as she is suited by the step up in trip, I could see her running well.

Place 6 Selections – Ebony Adams, Callipygian

2.20 Thirsk

This is a tricky race and I would be inclined to go with 3 selections for a shortlist. Baltic State leads the list of selections as he probably has the best form and, with a better draw last time, I think he would have won over C&D. Better draw today and should run well.

Kilham is a horse I know well as I backed him two starts ago at York when he was only 4th. Ran much better last time although he was no match for the winner at Ayr. He doesn’t meet anything of that calibre in this race and, therefore, I would not be surprised if he runs well.

My final selection is likely to be a decent price but I would take a chance on Araifjan from the David O’Meara stable. He was quietly fancied on debut which suggests he has shown something at home and, although he has about 10 lengths to find on Balancing Act, he will be much closer today.

Place 6 Selections – Baltic State, Kilham, Araifjan

2.50 Thirsk

A 17 runner 3-year-old handicap made even more complicated by the fact the top weight is declared to run on Thursday. Assuming House Deposit does turn up in this race,  he would be on the shortlist (assuming he doesn’t bomb out on Thursday I guess!)

He’s been slipping down the handicap but last time was a decent run to be 5th at Ayr and the way he stayed on suggested his turn wasn’t too far away and, with a really good draw here, it’s difficult to oppose him from 4lbs below his last winning mark.

Princess Palliser isn’t one to trust but there is one standout piece of form for her which, if she can ever repeat, will see her win off this sort of mark. Was 4th at Donny in March off a mark of 67 and she runs off a mark of 59 here. She was fairly eye-catching at Catterick early in the week and there is just a chance being back in a big field handicap might suit her and allow her to repeat the Doncaster effort again.

Grimsdyke runs under a penalty after springing a massive surprise last time at 25/1. Never a big fan of backing horses like him at much shorter odds next time out as it looks a bit of a fluke but this is a really poor race and at least he knows how to win. Makes the shortlist.

Finally, Josiebond completes the shortlist and may actually represent a bit of value. Lots of bits and pieces of form this season gives her a squeak and the 5th of 19 over C&D off a 4lbs higher mark stands out as a useful piece of form. If I could get a decent double figure price on her, I’d probably back it.

Place 6 Selections – House Deposit, Princess Palliser, Grimsdyke, Josiebond

3.20 Thirsk

A tricky 15 runner handicap and this race is a minefield for the Place 6. I could rule out 5 or 6 but it remains a very difficult race and I’ll suggest 4 selections for the perm.

Myklachi is the obvious starting point and, in a race where there are question marks about a number of these, he is proven over the trip and on the ground. Although he is well exposed, not sure he has to improve too much to take a hand in the finish here.

Magrevio is closely handicapped with Myklachi and, strictly speaking, he should finish in front of the fav as he beat it last time out and is better off at the weights today. The question mark is the ground and I’m not sure he wants it to soften too much based on some previous runs but, assuming he handles the ground, is capable of running well.

Land of Winter looks on a decent mark and will handle the soft ground and has already proven he stays this trip. Clear question marks regarding the fact he hasn’t been seen for 57 days but, assuming he is fit and well and hasn’t had an injury, could run well at a price.

For my final selection, I was torn between two outsiders. Geyser and Calevade are both likely to be massive prices but I could build an argument to back either. Both look like potential improvers but I just came down on the side of Calevade who was fairly eye-catching last time out and, if he can improve again for the extra distance, I could see him running well today. May back at a big price.

Place 6 Selections – Myklachi, Magrevio, Land Of Winter, Calevade

3.50 Thirsk

Another difficult looking 5 runner conditions race and I couldn’t rule any of them out with any confidence, although two stand out for me. 

Remarkable is the second best in at the weights today according to official ratings although there is a question mark about how much ability he retains after 18 months off the track and 3 poor runs this season. I thought he ran better last time even though he finished last as it was a much better race than this one and, if he can repeat that run, probably good enough to go close here.

The one who is best in at the weights is the filly Dan’s Dream and she drops down in class after being beaten at Royal Ascot. If you ignore her Ascot run, she would be coming here off the back of two very good seconds in Ireland and the 7f on soft ground appears to suit her. Therefore, she is a straightforward selection.

Place 6 Selections – Remarkable, Dan’s Dream

4.20 Thirsk

This is a shocking contest where I’ll be surprised if 3 of the 5 runners ever win a race. The two with the best form are hardly world beaters themselves but, in the context of this race, it will be a shock if they don’t finish 1st and 2nd I think.

It’s hard to oppose Society Star who has a stone in hand over the second fav on ratings although, to be honest, I’m not sure she should be rated as highly as she is and there is a clear question mark about the ground. Even so, she makes the shortlist.

The alternative is War Ensign and at least we know he is in form and, although he has a doubt about the ground, I’d probably just favour him over the favourite in terms of which horse represents value in a poor race. 

Place 6 Selections – Society Star, War Ensign 

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