Our racing expert The Form Analyst returns to provide another insightful preview, this time setting his sights on the Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6 at Pontefract on Thursday. He tells us that he reckon Glasses Up is his best bet of the day he could be a great bet under ‘optimal conditions’ but read on for all of his Pontefract Tips.
A tricky race to start proceedings although, having watched the debut run of Joshua R, the drop back to 5f looks sure to suit him. From the ideal draw for a front runner here over 5f, he could easily go very close to making all at a really decent price.
Seas of Elzaam ran well on debut when 3rd and the fact that he went off as favourite and finished behind a couple of animals rated 70 and 74 suggests that he probably showed something at home. Needs to improve again here as he meets another few who are rated around the same sort of mark but, with normal improvement from his debut run, should be capable of running well.
Place 6 Selections – Joshua R, Seas of Elzaam
An 8 runner handicap on the Place 6 is usually a good race for me but this one is difficult, although I’ve only gone with two as I think the second selection is a strong selection.
New Look has shown next to nothing in 6 starts in the UK since coming over from France and it’s clear his initial handicap mark of 88 didn’t represent his ability.
He runs here off 67 now but, having followed him closely this season, he does have ability and I suspect this sort of mark is within range. If you ignore his last 2 runs, you’d give him a squeak and, at the likely odds, I’m happy to take a chance.
However, my idea of the winner of this race is Hammer Gun. He returned to form last time when very well backed and, although he is up a couple of pounds, I’ve got no issue with him as he was running off level weights last time when beating higher rated horses. I will be surprised if he doesn’t run well and go close.
Place 6 Selections – New Look, Hammer Gun
I think I’ve found a really nice bet in this one and, if he opens at a decent price, I expect I’ll be having a decent bet. Glasses Up looked to run poorly last time when dropped to 8f at Musselburgh but was very unlucky.
He travelled through the race very well and was just unable to get a good run through at the right time and was stopped at least 3 times. It wasn’t as obvious as some I see but I marked him up as being the likely winner with a better trip through the race. Running off the same mark here, he has optimal conditions as he is up to 10f and, hopefully at a decent price, I think he’s a good bet.
In a race where not too many look well handicapped, I’d have to give Aiya a chance. Has run poorly in his last couple but has dropped to a mark now that he should really be competitive off. With this track suiting his running style, I would expect him to run well from the front.
My final selection is the very progressive Anna Bunina. She has won her last two but is only 2lbs higher than last time and, looking at her career profile, you’d be surprised if she has stopped improving yet and could easily go onto better things.
Place 6 Selections – Glasses Up, Aiya, Anna Bunina
The one that caught my eye in this race was Kindly, from the Mick Easterby stable. She’s already been beaten 3 times off this mark since moving from Ireland, so is not exactly thrown in, but this looks a slightly easier race than some of her recent assignments and she meets a few horses here who look like they are on difficult marks after recent successes.
The horse behind her last time (Oriental Lilly) has come out and won, the horse in front of her the time before (Rose Marmara) went on to run a cracker and the horse who beat her in that first run (Gale Force Maya) reopposses today on 18lbs worse terms. Kindly must be value to reverse that result.
Dragons Call is the other one I like in here as she has been running well in Ireland over 7f when trying to make all. Back down to 6f today at a track that suits front runners and, from a good draw, she should run well.
Place 6 Selections – Kindly, Dragons Call
A four runner race where it’s almost impossible to split them. My strategy will be straightforward, I’ll cover all four on my perm and move onto the next race. Obviously I’m hoping the outsider wins to create extra value in my bet.
Given the purpose of the blog and the fact that I’m meant to be helping find winners and placers, I’ll plump for Forewarning to beat Rubenesque for the forecast.
Place 6 Selections – Forewarning, Rubenesque, Stormin Normin, Kitty’s Cove
You have two in this race with proven form who are rated 80 and 82. They take on a well bred newcomer and a horse who has won 2 out of 3 in NH bumpers and could be decent on the flat.
Personally, a rating of 80+ is high enough to make me think it will take a pretty special performance from a newcomer or a bumper horse to beat the two with form and therefore, the form horses are the selections.
Place 6 Selections – Ballylemon, Pianissimo