There’s £10,000 up for grabs in the Boosted Place 6 at Newmarket on Thursday. We asked The Form Analyst to give us his verdict and he has delivered this excellent preview of the afternoon’s action. He reckons that Moxy Mares is the best bet of the day, read on to find out why.
This is a tricky little race to kick-off the card although, on all known form, the top horse Swinley Forest should take all the beating. He has been given a rating of 77 after 3 runs and although the rating is irrelevant for this race (it is not a handicap), it shows he has achieved enough in his 3 runs to be able to win a race of this nature.
The other obvious alternative is the Osborne horse Hashtagmetoo and, although she is only rated 70, I thought she was a tad unlucky on her handicap debut last time as she didn’t get the clearest of runs. This is a step down in class for her tonight, even though she was labelled a class 4 v class 5 last time out.
Place 6 Selections – Swinley Forest, Hashtagmetoo
It is difficult to ignore Cent Flying in this after he returned to form at Brighton. He was very well backed after a wind operation and has been raised 10lbs by the handicapper since buts runs under a 5lb penalty tonight. By my calculations, he is 1lb out of the handicap but it is still well in by 4lbs and, despite the step up in class, he looks well enough handicapped to cope.
One dropping down in class is the top weight at the other end of the handicap. Equitation ran much better than it looked last time at Windsor as he won his race on the far side of the track but had no chance with the first 5 home on the near side. This is the easiest race he has faced for a few runs and he should run well again.
The final one that caught my eye was Normandy Barriere as he is on a decent mark these days and has run a couple of nice races in defeat this season. The handicapper has dropped him another 2lbs to a mark of 85 and, although he doesn’t win often enough, he is handicapped to run well here and has a better chance of placing than a few of his rivals.
Place 6 Selections – Cent Flying, Equitation, Normandy Barriere
A straightforward race that poses the simple question of whether Wild Thunder can give away 6lbs to a couple of very well-bred debutantes from the Gosden and Appleby stables. The market is likely to be a guide but I would perm Wild Thunder, the solid selection in the race, with the potential of one of the newcomers.
I’d probably favour the Appleby horse without the market to guide but, if the Gosden horse is well fancied given they won the race last year, then it could be the case that this horse is another good one but we’ll see.
Place 6 Selections – Wild Thunder, Discovery Island
Moxy Mares stands out in this field as being bang in form and being very well-handicapped. He was 3rd of 16 at Galway recently in a very competitive handicap and this is a much easier race. He’s up another 1lb but has plenty of backclass and a mark of 76 is well within his range.
Catch My Breath looks like he is capable of having a say off a mark of 63, after placing twice off this mark in his last two. This is probably a slightly tougher race than last time but he has only had 7 career starts and is unlikely to have stopped improving. First time cheekpieces may eek out some additional improvement.
Finally, Trulee Scrumptious is a course specialist and notched her 5th course success when making all recently. She is only a couple of pounds higher tonight and, assuming similar tactics are employed where she will try and make all, she should go close.
Place 6 Selections – Moxy Mares, Catch My Breath, Trulee Scrumptious
I’ve narrowed this one down to 3 and will be disappointed if I don’t hit the winner. The unexposed and potentially well handicapped horse in the race is Mina Vagante. She finished 2nd in her previous two outings which were very competitive handicaps and, although she needs to pull out more after being raised 4lbs, she looks to be improving and should run well again.
Water’s Edge is down in class on his second run for George Baker and the booking of Fallon caught my eye. He ran ok last time out on what was his first start for 4 months and went off a wild drifter that day, so he probably ran better than his SP. It’s clearly a bit speculative as we don’t know how much ability he retains but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improved showing here.
Lastly, Capriolette had been dropping like a stone in the handicap before popping up last time. Not sure if it was the trip or the ground that brought about the improvement but I’d have her on the shortlist here as she now looks fairly unexposed at this sort of trip and, if the rain hits the track, I could see her being backed.
Place 6 Selections – Mins Vagante, Water’s Edge, Capriolette
A horrible little race to end the card and I couldn’t rule any of them out.
Pinnata is very well handicapped on turf compared to its AW mark and he ran well last time when second. He bumped into a very well handicapped horse that day and I’d give him another chance here.
Humble Gratitude did well to win last time at Chester and I think he had a real chance of following up under a 5lbs penalty now he has returned to form.
I’m torn between the proven experience of Mr Top Hat and potential of Siglo Six as the final selection but Going to go with the former. The differentiator is that Mr Top Hat is proven on soft ground and, with the unsettled forecast around, looks a safer option.
Place 6 Selections – Pinnata, Humble Gratitude, Mr Top Hat