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Jimmyjamjom’s £800k Pick 15 Preview

Join James’ Pick 15 Syndicate here. 18+

Every week I will be reviewing the weekend Pick 15.

The associated syndicate reference is: 564VNZAF

We will always be going for the Jackpot of £800,000 with a maximum of 64 lines (£128.00 stake).

We will not Cash Out – we will not fold to pressure – we will win this thing!

Last week we did reasonably well, 10 out of 15 saw us just miss the consolation prizes. Some results were very tight and we were unlucky not to get more. We had a nice run of 8 out of 9 when we went down to single selections in the second half; in fact the one mistake had Home and Draw covered where Torino had their game of the season so far.

Each week I will be highlighting some fixtures as bankers – games that I would bet my house on and will be tallying up my success rate on these games.

Last week there were 4 bankers – yes count them 4: Watford (who gave Newcastle their first ever win since 1952), Swansea (who gave away 2 penalties in the last 11 minutes, gifting it to Rotherham), Tottenham (who thankfully held on against Wolves) and Sassuolo (who walked over Chievo as expected).

Bankers so far:  13 out of 26 (50% is better than the 33% expected performance by a random computer, but yes – still not good enough)

Bankers this week: Reading, Arsenal and Bordeaux.

Anyway, onto this week…

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Newcastle have magically jumped out of the drop zone with a win against Watford. I had been saying they’d been a bit unlucky so far, but of course it was when I finally stopped backing them that they won. Bournemouth are where we expect them to be, above Manchester United in 6th place. I’m going to go nuts and say that last week’s win, plus home advantage might just be enough to see Newcastle bag another win. But just in case I’m crazy, then I’m backing away too.

Selection: Home / Away

Derby vs Aston Villa

Derby came back ferociously against Birmingham last time out. Villa got a decent win against Bolton too, but I’m going to back the Rams, who’ve scored 10 goals in the last 4 matches to take this.

Selection: Home

Bristol City vs Preston

Masters of the draw Preston got another one against Ipswich despite putting a midfielder in goal. Chris Maxwell will miss this because of suspension but I expect they will replace him with a reserve goalkeeper this time as Paul Gallagher is not considering a permanent switch to between the sticks. Bristol are showing signs of faltering with the last 2 losses, and although I expect them to get back on track here, I’d better cover the draw in case Preston get a third in a row.

Selection: Home / Draw

Nottingham Forest vs Stoke

Forest were strong against Sheff Utd and snatched a win last time out and Stoke aren’t as good as Sheff Utd. So if I feed that info into my super computer it tells me they’ll win this too. But I have this feeling that Stoke can get a draw.

Selection: Home / Draw

QPR vs Brentford

QPR don’t really like to draw, having only done it twice in 16 games, so in my mind they’re due one and there’s no better opportunity than this. If I were QPR I would be going into this doing all I could to get those terrible draw stats up a bit.

Selection: Draw

Reading vs Ipswich

Ipswich showed how much of a boost they’re going to get from having Lambert as a manager – they’re going to fail to score against 10 men who have a mid-fielder playing in goal. Reading by contrast stuck 3 goals in against rivals Bristol. Home banker.

Selection: Home

West Brom vs Leeds

Some of the terrific performances by West Brom earlier in the season are hard to remember having watched them fail to win in the last 4 league games. They will undoubtedly turn it around soon but will it be against top of the table Leeds? Hard to imagine really, but I have to cover the home win anyway because stats never lie. Covering the away win is a no-brainer.

Selection: Home / Away

Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Dortmund have one of the biggest stadiums in Europe with a capacity north of 80,000 and the home fans always fill it. So it’s easy to see why they have such a strong home advantage (for example the 4-0 victory against Atletico Madrid). They are also top of the Bundesliga. So I’m backing the home team, but it’s Bayern Munich for god’s sake, so I’m backing the away win too of course.

Selection: Home / Away

Girona vs Leganes

Leganes are one of 3 teams in La Liga that lose more than they do anything else. So let’s hope that this is one of those times.

Selection: Home

Atalanta vs Inter Milan

As some of you will know I sort of love Atalanta a little bit from watching them play most of last season. So it takes a lot for me to bet against them. However, Inter Milan may just come into the category of a lot. Inter Milan have won the last 7 league games on the bounce. That’s a better record than Juventus or anyone else in the league. So this might be time to bet against Atalanta, but I’m covering the draw because of Champion’s League fatigue.

Selection: Draw / Away

Bordeaux vs Caen

Every French Ligue 1 game is a draw as we all know, but not this one. Home banker for Bordeaux. Caen are very unimpressive so far this term notching up only 2 wins. Bordeaux away is not a game that will come good for them.

Selection: Home

Empoli vs Udinese

I have no desire to back either of these teams to win a game, no matter who they’re playing. Luckily I have the option to not have to do that, by backing the draw.

Selection: Draw

Arsenal vs Wolves

Wolves might have given Tottenham a little scare as they clawed their way back from 3-0 down, but let’s look more at the fact that they went 3-0 down in the first place and Arsenal are flying. Home banker.

Selection: Home

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal

What’s happened to Villarreal? Why have they only won twice so far this season when they finished 5th last season? Who knows, but surely they’re good enough to get a win against Rayo.

Selection: Away

AC Milan vs Juventus

It is possible to get a draw against Juventus, just ask Genoa, but it’s not really possible to beat them. It would just be crazy to get to this stage and think I didn’t back Juventus for the win, despite the slight possibility of a draw.

Selection: Away

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